墨尔本房屋空置率升至4.4%（6年新高）市场面临OVERSUPPLY风险

kvwb

Melbourne faces oversupply
2012

By: Jennifer Duke

•oversupply
•melbourne
Melbourne may soon be facing a situation of oversupply, according to new data from SQM Research.
The rising vacancy rate recorded in Melbourne, a 1 per cent increase last month, has seen more than 16,007 rental properties empty.

“Melbourne is looking ominous and we are expecting rental declines for this capital city for 2012,” said Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research.

“Melbourne has definitely become a renter’s market and landlords can no longer be expected to extract higher rents in Melbourne,” he said.

Late last year, Mr Christopher said that Melbourne had reached an equilibrium and was at a tipping point with vacancy rates at 3 per cent.

“It is very possible we will see Melbourne vacancies continue to rise from here as there is, even at this point in time, new stock still just being completed now,” he said.

In December 2010 there were 12,937 vacancies recorded.

The current 4.4 per cent vacancy rate is a six-year high and is being treated as “ominous” by the research body, who still point to upcoming developments that are currently in the completion stages.

Victoria-based Becton Property Group’s CEO for development and construction Damian Dalgleish, however, explained to Smart Property Investment that he sees no chance of an oversupply provided the unemployment rate remains low.

“That oversupply word is thrown about a bit. How can there possibly be an oversupply?

“I can’t see, in the foreseeable future, while our unemployment rates remain where they are, that we will have any particular problem with oversupply,” said Mr Dalgleish.

He explains that investors are still in the market and many young professionals have expressed interest in renting or buying his latest developments.

“It’s that phenomena of when you get to 21 and you finish your university degree and you want to rent. In this country people earn good money and can afford to go and rent with a couple of people.”

He says that he knows that many developments are still in the pipeline but that it is not an indication that the market faces an oversaturation.

“There are a lot of places still in construction today, but I can see that there might actually be a further undersupply coming up as we go forward because once that is delivered I think there is still a bit of a hole [in the market].”

kvwb

Rental vacancy rate an 'ominous development'
by: By Neil Wilson
From: Herald Sun

VACANCY rates for rental properties across Melbourne have surged to a six-year high in an "ominous" development for the property market.

The city has the highest vacancy levels of any state capital, with more than 16,000 rental properties now empty, according to research group SQM.
Managing director Louis Christopher said that even allowing for the usual summer spike in vacancies, Melbourne had a clear oversupply, particularly of units.
That situation could worsen as new apartment blocks were finished, he said.
Melbourne's vacancy rate surged 1 percentage point last month to 4.4 per cent.
Rental rates are expected to fall as a consequence, further undermining the sluggish housing market.
Mr Christopher said the vacancy rate, assessed using online rental listings advertised for three weeks, showed there were 16,007 vacant rental properties.
Sydney, with a vacancy rate of 2 per cent, had almost 5000 fewer properties available.
"Three per cent is about equilibrium but over that it indicates a rate of vacancy where rents are starting to fall, which follows on from the flat rentals of the past year in Melbourne," Mr Christopher said. "It's a concern because there's still a lot of work in progress in Melbourne on apartment blocks yet to be completed."
Real Estate Institute of Victoria figures put the vacancy rate at a more moderate 3.1 per cent late last year.
Property advisers Opteon said the market was still tight in the suburbs and predicted rents might increase this year -- but the inner city was definitely in danger of oversupply and a high vacancy rate.


Read more: http://www.news.com.au/money/ren ... 08634#ixzz1sf547EDk

wmwbull

为什么啊。。。是不是移民来不了啦。。。。。。

mantou

应该是房屋市场的滞后效应。高峰时好多开发项目现在正在收尾。

兔兔狗

收尾以后空房率更高

kvwb

原帖由 mantou 于 2012-4-21 18:36 发表
应该是房屋市场的滞后效应。高峰时好多开发项目现在正在收尾。

确实。绝大大部分是2009下半年到2011上半年的OFF PLAN

根据时间差，oversupply从2011年初已经开始，会至少持续到2013年中期才会从新归于平衡；

然后经过6个月到一年的需求积累，2014年中才可能谈反弹

wmwbull

噢。。。失衡了。。。。。。

kvwb

磨不过还是那句话，大家恐慌你贪婪，大家贪婪你恐慌

kvwb

Property analyst Michael Matusik who recently spoke at an Urban Development Institute of Australia conference in Melbourne, says there’s no doubt Melbourne is over-supplied and “may take years to recover”.

He says the number of new dwellings built in Victoria last year was 80 per cent higher than required, with most of it happening in Melbourne.

Matusik says: “Melbourne is facing a bit of a shock. There’s a general perception there that everything will be okay and it’s just a short-term blip.

“But the market is over-supplied with both new and existing stock for sale. Melbourne’s vacancy rate is twice what it is in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, and two and half times Sydney.

“Unless there’s a massive fall in new dwelling starts, Melbourne could be in for a long term period of over-supply. It needs to correct itself in terms of new construction.”

长安悉尼

此数据都被pc拉下来的

天行健

都是铁鱼这种development造成的，看看box hill那边Whitehorse road上的，谁愿意租apartment?

fitr

mel不妙啊

金牛

快探底了？

carl181818

房价难道跌了？没看到啊？

LENNY_DONG

高空置率都在西面，西北面，北面。

东面都很低。

西面和西北面高的可怕

LENNY_DONG

东南唯一特列我看到的是CLAYTON

空置达8%

豆包妈

原帖由 STS-TAX 于 2012-4-22 14:16 发表
东南唯一特列我看到的是CLAYTON

空置达8%

clayton那么高吗？
最近刚有朋友租过去
说是房租比以前低了
但是好像人也挺多的
还有另外很多朋友想在那里买自住房，说将来转投资

天行健

原帖由 豆包妈 于 2012-4-22 14:21 发表


clayton那么高吗？
最近刚有朋友租过去
说是房租比以前低了
但是好像人也挺多的
还有另外很多朋友想在那里买自住房，说将来转投资

正常，主要是这几年留学生多，Monash附近的房子都翻建成多房的townhouse或者unit...问题就在与现在学生少了，那选择就多了，只有真正近大学才有人租，其他地方自然而然的空了！！！

wilsonbb

楼上的签名太搞笑了

LENNY_DONG

原帖由 豆包妈 于 2012-4-22 14:21 发表


clayton那么高吗？
最近刚有朋友租过去
说是房租比以前低了
但是好像人也挺多的
还有另外很多朋友想在那里买自住房，说将来转投资

你可以根据新闻上面提到的公司网站去看看

yykent

是不是意味著楼价还有得跌？

ZZZZZ

墨尔本地产探底了，看何时反弹吧，估计2014年

豆包妈

原帖由 天行健 于 2012-4-22 15:24 发表

正常，主要是这几年留学生多，Monash附近的房子都翻建成多房的townhouse或者unit...问题就在与现在学生少了，那选择就多了，只有真正近大学才有人租，其他地方自然而然的空了！！！

可我认识的都是工作的人了
不是留学生
他们觉得那里生活方便
火车多，而且还快
就是味道不好，比较臭

LENNY_DONG

原帖由 豆包妈 于 2012-4-23 01:45 发表

可我认识的都是工作的人了
不是留学生
他们觉得那里生活方便
火车多，而且还快
就是味道不好，比较臭

too many indian

明洁

路过

kobees

不晓得 city 和 southbank dockland一线怎样？

globkiller

Melbourne前几年开发的确有点过火了

isnacks

每年移那么多民进来，这点空置率不算什么。长远看，房屋求大于供。但是CBD的apartment很难说。

erinneptune

东南唯一特列我看到的是CLAYTON

neochen

请问你是在哪里看到详细的每个suburb的rental vacancy rates?thx~