账单一万四 从狗熊到英雄

长安雪梨

账单一万四 从狗熊到英雄
Westpac's Evans goes from zero to hero

http://www.businessday.com.au/business/westpacs-evans-goes-from-zero-to-hero-20110815-1iucu.html

西太银行的首席经济学家，账单一万四，从欧洲考察回到澳洲后(有点像赖哥加国考察12年后回国)人生观发生了改变，经历了从狗熊变英雄的一举成名。



2011年7月15日，一万四一鸣惊人，预测RBA将在年底之前减息。这一预言使账单(Bill)本人蒙受了巨大的压力和侮辱。

账单预言，澳洲的失业率2012年将升至5.75%。

RBA在随后的月经会上将澳洲的年增长率从3.25%降到2%。

金融市场的交易员现在100%押注RBA在11月份之前将减息75点。

高盛和德国银行也调转枪口，向RBA喊话：降息！降息！

四大银行也纷纷阵前起义，纷纷放下高利率,仿佛兵败如山倒，利率狂减

即使是最嘴硬的ANZ，也将2-3年的固定利率猛降60点到6.44%。

一万四，现代版的余则成，曾求学於悉尼大学和伦敦经济学院，毕业后在RBA潜伏多年，后又在CBA卧底，最后回到了西太的怀抱，而来已有20余年。


Westpac chief economist Bill Evans changed his outlook after a trip to Europe.

Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, was Australia's loneliest forecaster 4 weeks ago as the first to predict an interest-rate cut.

Traders acting on Mr Evans's July 15 prediction would have profited amid the market carnage sparked by Europe's debt crisis and the first US credit-rating downgrade.

The yield on the 3-year government bond dropped as low as 3.41% from 4.41%, handing investors a 23% annualised return. The benchmark stock index has tumbled 5.4% and the dollar lost 2.9%.

Mr Evans's call, while yet to be proven right, is gaining a following: Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank last week switched course to forecast the next Reserve Bank rate move will be down. A recent trip to Europe helped convinced Mr Evans the region's troubles would slow Australia's economy, which hasn't been in a recession for two decades.

“The way we saw it, the global economy would provide the catalyst, but the major reason would be the deterioration in the unemployment rate in Australia,” Mr Evans said in an interview. “It got more attention than most predictions we make, and at the time I didn't expect that.”

The day he reversed his earlier call that rates were likely to rise, Mr Evans was the outlier in a Bloomberg News survey of 21 economists, with the others forecasting an increase or no change.


RBA's Inaction
The RBA will tomorrow publish minutes of its August 2 meeting, when Governor Glenn Stevens left the overnight cash rate target unchanged at 4.75% after considering whether to end an eight-month pause and lift borrowing costs.

On July 26, Mr Stevens said the nation's subdued household spending will likely rebound as consumers gain confidence. A day later, a report showed inflation surged in the second quarter above the central bank's target range of 2% to 3%, increasing speculation of further rate increases.

The RBA on August 5 slashed its 2011 growth projection to 2% from 3.25%. Traders see a 100% chance Mr Stevens will lower the benchmark rate by 75 basis points to 4% by November, cash rate futures showed in Sydney this afternoon.

“He looked completely wrong for about 10 days and now he looks like a genius again,” said Annette Beacher, an economist at TD Securities in Singapore.


'Rate-cut Rory'
Former Macquarie Group rate strategist Rory Robertson, who now works for Westpac, bolstered his reputation after betting against the market and accurately forecasting the central bank would cut rates in 1996, earning him the nickname “Rate-cut Rory.”

In 2009, JPMorgan Chase chief economist in Australia Stephen Walters was alone in picking Mr Stevens's decision to become the first Group of 20 policy maker to boost rates after the height of the global recession.

Mr Evans has spent two decades at Westpac, the nation's second-largest lender. Prior to that, the Sydney University and London School of Economics graduate worked as a research manager for the Reserve Bank and held roles at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the nation's biggest bank.

“I'm an output gap guy,” Mr Evans said in the interview in Sydney. “If the output gap is widening because the labor market is weakening, then workers can't get the wage increase they want to compensate for that and you end up with slower growth.”


EU Troubles
Mr Evans said he and his team of economists found reasons to change their outlook on Australian rates after he returned last month to Sydney from a tour of London, Frankfurt, Zurich, Paris and Edinburgh, where it became clear to him “how dysfunctional that whole story” of European debt was.

“The biggest test with these sorts of things is how comfortable do you feel telling the story to your customers. And if you don't feel comfortable, you've got to reassess it,” said Mr Evans, who also forecast the jobless rate would rise to as high as 5.75% next year.

“Bill is renowned for going overseas on marketing trips and coming back and changing his call,” said Warren Hogan, chief economist at ANZ, who expects rates to stay unchanged. “And he obviously made the trip to Europe just before his last change of view which proved to be quite fortuitous. But there's still a long way to go. The RBA hasn't cut yet.”


Jobless rate
Unemployment jumped in July for the first time since October, to 5.1%, according to a report last week. Separate reports since July 31 show consumer confidence deteriorated for a fourth straight month to the lowest level in more than two years and demand for mortgages grew at the slowest annual pace in June since 1977.

The central bank's next meeting is on September 6. Last week, economists at Goldman Sachs predicted a cut next month, and Deutsche Bank forecast a reduction in October.

While ANZ reduced home loan rates for three-year fixed mortgages to 6.44% from 7.04% yesterday, Commonwealth Bank chief executive Ralph Norris said he doesn't expect “substantial” reductions by the central bank.

Asked whether he now feels his December call may now be too cautious, Mr Evans replied: “I'm not going to change it.”



[ 本帖最后由 长安雪梨 于 2011-8-16 00:08 编辑 ]

shangpin

RBA在随后的月经会上将澳洲的年增长率从3.25%降到2%。

??

95469597

真会降?

Bourke

降肯定会降，多家银行的定率小于浮动率，他们不会做亏本买卖的

PACIFIC

这个人名的翻译。。。

卡落琳0000

我还以为欠账一万四

Lucifer

贴一张7月29号Reuters的Poll吧，这样才看得出bill的NB

kiong

让时间来证实吧！

Devil_Star

7月15日才预言， 有点晚了吧～
查理哥4月份就开始预言年底要降息了， 能在澳币接近1.11的时候仍坚持会在年内回到PARITY的人不多， 查理哥算一个。

H妈妈

哇噻，这名字翻译得牛

dootbear

原帖由 H妈妈 于 2011-8-16 08:20 发表
哇噻，这名字翻译得牛

什么时候你也来翻译一两篇文章啊？

我们会给你大力加分 ：）

老衲

11月份之前将减息75点。
这消息哪里来的？

GKZ

原帖由 Devil_Star 于 2011-8-16 08:19 发表
7月15日才预言， 有点晚了吧～
查理哥4月份就开始预言年底要降息了， 能在澳币接近1.11的时候仍坚持会在年内回到PARITY的人不多， 查理哥算一个。

是吗? 能贴出来吗?
不过澳洲已经高处不胜寒

ytw01

厉害啊

anz2010

这个不用他来证明吧，升降就是二选一，连续猜中经济走势的几率不等于零

wondersky

有时候跟大多数人取反方向可以达到哗众取宠的目的，反正说话不要钱：）
他如果自己做空利息的单那就大牛了，不过说不定真做了。。。

procean

这一万四真搞笑

PNG

原来Zero还有狗熊的意思啊！

chriswxy

账单一万四
我还以为欠债使他耳聪目明呢

bluema

有人拿着一堆房子坐不住了，盼着减息救市；不过，房价房租不跌，CPI据高不下，RBA能轻易减息吗？贪婪的房东好好想想如何才能让RBA减息，您们才是手握利息加减的钥匙。

小日子

账单一万四 - 史上最强翻译，我不禁泪流满面

chenxi_sun

go2home

那 Bill Gates 应翻译为 “账单该死” or “该死的账单”

singlo

有才啊！

newtoe

环法冠军Cadel Evans的名字-----扣掉一万四

Devil_Star

原帖由 GKZ 于 2011-8-16 08:56 发表

是吗? 能贴出来吗?
不过澳洲已经高处不胜寒

付费服务，不好贴。

czy0058

这翻译牛啊，能翻成这样

小肉兔

哈哈一万四 看了两遍才明白

jpxiao

ls有说预测经济就是二选一，不是升就是降，没人能每次都预测对，也对也不对。。。

觉得是两种可能：
第一，一万四同学到欧洲看了一圈就明白形势严峻了，澳洲国内一帮人就在那儿坐井观天还无比乐观，这是很可怕的
第二，行业内其实都知道形势了却都在骗人，为了他们的好处，就像08金融危机前，皇帝的新装啊，一万四就是那个小孩，这是更可怕的