澳央行行长发话：高涨的澳大利亚房价不存在泡沫

candywomandog

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/with-recovery-on-track-rba-boss-sees-no-bubble-bubble-toil-and-trouble/news-story/bc34af23c275ed915cc8f864f792df35





Philip Lowe made his reputation among the global econorati in a prescient research paper almost two decades ago on the dangers of asset-price bubbles because of loose monetary policy.

Yet on Wednesday at the Nat­ional Press Club, the ­Reserve Bank governor played down the prospect of a messy boom in housing prices or shares as the economic recovery from the COVID-19 shock gathers momentum.

“Am I worried about asset ­prices rising too quickly?” he said in answer to a reporter’s question. “At the moment, not especially … I find it hard at the moment to express concerns about the developments in asset prices to date.”


According to CoreLogic, ­average capital city house prices rose by 1.7 per cent in the year to December, while in regional areas prices increased by 7.9 per cent over the period.

A year ago at the same venue, before the coronavirus, Lowe ­actually said falling home prices were one of the factors behind sluggish growth in 2019.

jacsonlin

废话，现在银行又没放宽贷款。当然央行不担心。

immunity

房价这是准备要坐火箭？~

rogershan

全是内需没啥好怕，而且才是个开头

cangaru

房价要涨

john420

不是说澳大利亚房产是被严重低估的吗？

尤其是在全球疫情之后

fiony

jacsonlin 发表于 2021-2-4 14:03
废话，现在银行又没放宽贷款。当然央行不担心。

对的。行长的原话是房价上涨是带动经济复苏的积极因素，但是如果银行贷款进一步放松甚至失控的话，央行是要随时保持警惕的。换言之，适度放水可以，但要预防大旱之后的大涝。

One other important factor bearing on household spending is the housing market. When I spoke here last year I discussed how falling housing prices was one of the factors that had contributed to sluggish growth in 2019. The dynamics in the housing market now look to be in a different phase, with prices rising across most of the country recently (Graph 11). It remains to be seen how long this will continue, but sustainable increases in asset prices support household balance sheets and encourage spending through positive wealth effects. Higher housing prices can also encourage additional residential construction. But as housing prices rise again, we will be monitoring lending standards closely. We would be concerned if there were to be a deterioration in these standards, but there are few signs of this at the moment.

leaf2019

泡泡和泡泡之间还有挤挤的空间

fiony

想了想，还是放上行长讲话原文吧。一个央行行长，不可能整天总是盯着房市。新闻报道或者转发也不应该总是曲解政策，中英文翻译的差别不应该成为曲解原文的桥梁。

https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/ ... html#the-year-ahead

吃素的狼

fiony 发表于 2021-2-4 16:15
对的。行长的原话是房价上涨是带动经济复苏的积极因素，但是如果银行贷款进一步放松甚至失控的话，央行是 ...

rba：你们先涨个30%再考虑别的

kokolo

不说别的，就看最近RBA会议的内容，他说不同的话不是自打嘴巴吗？

candywomandog

kokolo 发表于 2021-2-4 16:41
不说别的，就看最近RBA会议的内容，他说不同的话不是自打嘴巴吗？

他不是一直说要让房价涨嘛

kokolo

candywomandog 发表于 2021-2-4 16:47
他不是一直说要让房价涨嘛

我没看到他说这句

不过他让水淹房市的实事没少干

jiankangruyiall

全世界生产减少，消费下降，但各国发钱猛增，通胀是必然的，加上利率历史新低并将长期保持，房价上涨甚至是快速上涨是大概率事件。

对你爱不完

对比13年，房产是全面上涨，无论好区烂区，house还是unit，这是真的繁荣
现在只有house涨，印钞票几千亿，需求是大家为了防止货币贬值的一种投资

limaaa

不破就没有泡沫

limaaa

市场说了算，

skysadness

千亿通胀，绝无泡沫

Sunny810

house短期内还得上涨。

自游自在

拭目以待

chdsl007

跟北上广比肯定是没啥泡沫 问题是 比得了吗

jacsonlin

chdsl007 发表于 2021-2-4 22:33
跟北上广比肯定是没啥泡沫 问题是 比得了吗

北上广房价是很高，问题是钱出的来吗？

chdsl007

jacsonlin 发表于 2021-2-4 22:34
北上广房价是很高，问题是钱出的来吗？

办法总比困难多

jacsonlin

chdsl007 发表于 2021-2-4 22:36
办法总比困难多

小钱还好说，大钱就算了。

chdsl007

jacsonlin 发表于 2021-2-4 22:37
小钱还好说，大钱就算了。

大钱肯定也有大钱的办法 咱没有啊

jacsonlin

chdsl007 发表于 2021-2-4 22:38
大钱肯定也有大钱的办法 咱没有啊

你说的那是例外。大部分人不是例外。

chdsl007

jacsonlin 发表于 2021-2-4 22:39
你说的那是例外。大部分人不是例外。

大部分人也没有大钱啊

jacsonlin

chdsl007 发表于 2021-2-4 22:39
大部分人也没有大钱啊

北上广土著人均应该一套房能上千吧。

chdsl007

jacsonlin 发表于 2021-2-4 22:40
北上广土著人均应该一套房能上千吧。

大部分还是一家就一套房子 人均可太夸张了

jacsonlin

chdsl007 发表于 2021-2-4 22:42
大部分还是一家就一套房子 人均可太夸张了

土著一般是指有二环内的房子。