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The S&P 500 Index ended an up-and-down session higher by three points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain and the Nasdaq indexes climbed. Banks rallied, and energy producers surged after a report that Saudi Arabia lowered oil exports fueled a surge in the price of crude. Stocks with high dividend yields fell the most as the 10-year Treasury yield tumbled. Equities started the day lower on poor sentiment sparked by a weak reading on Chinese manufacturing, which added to concern that global growth is slowing. A read on US Manufacturing (Markit’s Dec PMI) also come in slightly below expectations (53.8 v 53.9 est and prior 53.9).
U.S. 10-year yield fell 1.8 bps to 2.6664% - Some gauges of economic health are pricing in lower Fed rates for the first time in more than a decade. The little-known near-term forward spread, which reflects the difference between the forward rate implied by Treasury bills six quarters from now and the current three-month yield, fell into negative territory on Wednesday for the first time since March 2008. Two-year yields dipped below those on one-year paper in December.
From an Australian perspective the focus is on domestic and regional issues…..
The Australia 10-year bond yield fell 2.9 bps to 2.289% following yesterday’s soft house price numbers – which basically rules out any near term hikes by the RBA. The widening interest-rate differential in favor of the U.S. weighed on the Australian dollar. Ten-year Australian bonds yield about 2.28 percent, compared with 2.65 percent for similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries.
The Australian dollar fell below 70 U.S. cents for the first time since 2016 as global growth concerns and rising U.S. interest rates sap demand for the nation’s assets. The Aussie fell 9.7% in 2018, the worst performance among Group-of-10 currencies. Australia’s economic growth has eased after commodity prices slumped and household consumption slowed. Investors are betting the central bank will cut interest rates this year amid an uncertain outlook as China, the nation’s largest trading partner, continues to spar with the U.S. over trade.
Focus on the Banks today as the Treasurer steps in. The sector was the main driver of our market lower yesterday after the House price index disappointed. This morning the Australian is reporting Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has called on the banks to reignite “affordable and timely” lending after new figures revealed national house prices ¬suffered their worst year since the global financial crisis. It seem that the dramatic slide in Australia’s biggest property markets — Sydney fell by 8.9%, Melbourne by 7% — has prompted warnings from leading economists that the Reserve Bank could cut official interest rates into emergency territory this year, in a bid to reboot economic growth.
This could go either way for us. The Bulls will say, coupled with APRA’s lifting of investors only loan caps, this endorsement by the government will allow the banks to lend more aggressively without incuring additional regulatory scrutiny. Meanwhile, the bears will argue the warning comes as confidence is already at dangerously low levels and it’s a matter of if the banks are willing to lend more in this environment of falling house prices.
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