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Sharemarket falls, bets mount for 125-point rate cut
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,24897,24684627-601,00.html
Allison Jackson | November 21, 2008
Article from: The Australian
LOCAL stocks tumbled in a global rout, pushing markets to bet on interest rates falling up to 125 basis points next month.
Oil producers outstripped losses in the broader market, falling 7.31 per cent after crude went below $US50 a barrel. Photo: AP
The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 shed 112.1 points, or 3.34 per cent, to 3240.8 in the first 15 minutes of trading.
The All Ordinaries was down 108.4 points at 3224.2.
Financial markets have priced in a 125-basis-point interest rate cut at the next Reserve Bank board meeting, which would be the deepest reduction since April 1990, when the central bank slashed rates by 150 basis points.
However, financial markets have priced a 52 per cent chance of the RBA calling an emergency meeting next week to begin that sharp easing policy with a quarter of a percentage point cut.
Since September, the RBA has cut a total of 200 basis points, taking official rates to 5.25 per cent, the lowest level in more than five years.
Oil producers outstripped losses in the broader market, falling 7.31 per cent after crude went below $US50 a barrel to the lowest level in more than three years.
Basic materials were down 3.95 per cent after prices for aluminium and copper sank to their lowest level in more than three years amid concerns about rising inventories and the health of the US carmaking industry.
Financial stocks fared slightly better, down 3.4 per cent.
The December share price index futures contract fell 163 points to 3235 overnight, indicating that the physical market could fall 4.8 per cent to the lowest close since December 19, 2003.
That would take losses over the past week to nearly 14 per cent, or $133 billion, as shares moved deeper into the second-worst bear market in Australian history.
Wall Street went into freefall overnight after lawmakers failed to pass legislation to extend emergency loans to US carmakers. At the same time, jobless claims reached a 16-year high in the US.
The index of leading economic indicators also fell for the third time in four months and manufacturing in the Philadelphia area had its biggest fall since 1990.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank to a new five-and-a-half year low, losing 444.99 points (5.56 per cent) to 7552.29. The Nasdaq lost 70.30 points (5.07 per cent) to 1316.12 and the Standard & Poor's 500 plummeted 54.14 points (6.71 per cent) to a close of 752.44, the lowest close since April 14, 1997.
The negative sentiment flowed into European shares, which fell more than 3 per cent.
The rout on global sharemarkets saw bond yields fall to all time lows as investors sought shelter in safe-haven investments.
In Australia, yields on three- and five-year government bonds fell to the lowest level on record. This morning, three-year government bond futures were up 21 points at 96.53 for an implied yield of 3.47 per cent.
In the US, the yield on two-year Treasury’s went below 1 per cent for the first time overnight and left the shortest-term Treasury bill rates at nearly zero.
The flight to safety saw the Australian dollar fall from around US64.50 cents to US60.80c in the past 24 hours, prompting the Reserve Bank to intervene once again to defend the currency against the wave of selling.
The Aussie recovered some ground this morning and was last trading at around US61.11c. |
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发表于 2008-11-21 11:35
