新足迹 › 论坛 › 澳洲生活区 › 投资理财 › 零钱罐 › Australian Investment Strategy - November 2008

精华好帖回顾
· 人为刀殂,我为鱼肉? (房租涨价了) (2005-4-20) 小白兔	· SK世界流行音乐系列之 TIMBALAND pk JUSTIN TIMBERLAKE (2008-2-24) steveking
· 说说怎么种荷花（莲花） (2010-7-2) qi_zq	· 上海夏天 (2010-5-15) xblues

查看: 2233|回复: 4

[其他方面] Australian Investment Strategy - November 2008 [复制链接]

Artcore

银靴族

发表于 2008-11-4 09:28 |显示全部楼层

此文章由 Artcore 原创或转贴，不代表本站立场和观点，版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 Artcore 所有！转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明，并保持内容完整

Courtesy of Credit Suisse.

World growth is collapsing, with recovery unlikely until late 2009

The news is that Chinese growth is slowing very sharply under the weight of export and property sector decline. It is now apparent that both the US and Chinese economies have been the beneficiaries of leverage-fuelled property booms in recent years, and are now paying for these excesses as the credit crunch forces deleveraging. Policy stimulus will not stop deleveraging in the short term, but it should start to become effective by late 2009, when the US housing market bottoms.

Suggested portfolio positioning

We remain overweight domestic defensives and banks. Banks are more priced for a hard landing than other sectors. We are negative on miners and domestic cyclicals (capex and retail).