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银靴族

发表于 2008-11-4 09:28 |显示全部楼层

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Courtesy of Credit Suisse.

World growth is collapsing, with recovery unlikely until late 2009

The news is that Chinese growth is slowing very sharply under the weight of export and property sector decline. It is now apparent that both the US and Chinese economies have been the beneficiaries of leverage-fuelled property booms in recent years, and are now paying for these excesses as the credit crunch forces deleveraging. Policy stimulus will not stop deleveraging in the short term, but it should start to become effective by late 2009, when the US housing market bottoms.

Suggested portfolio positioning

We remain overweight domestic defensives and banks. Banks are more priced for a hard landing than other sectors. We are negative on miners and domestic cyclicals (capex and retail).