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刚看到新闻，PUNTERS表示有可能降50个点来支持低迷的市场.....
原文:
PUNTERS have a near certainty on Melbourne Cup day with the Reserve Bank tipped to cut interest rates to kick a slowing local economy.
PUNTERS have a near certainty on Melbourne Cup day with the Reserve Bank tipped to cut a key interest rate by half a percentage point to kick a slowing local economy.
All bar one of the 15 economists surveyed by AAP has tipped the RBA to lower its cash rate by half a percentage point to 5.50 per cent.
The overnight cash rate was last this low in May 2006.
The RBA board meets next Tuesday, and will announce its decision at 2.30pm (AEDT), an hour before the start of the Melbourne Cup.
Repayments on an average mortgage around $250,000 would fall by $82 a month if commercial banks pass the cut in full to borrowers.
With the global markets meltdown increasing the odds to 50:50 of dragging Australia into a recession in late 2009, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said the central bank would cut by 50 basis points next Tuesday.
Dr Oliver also said the cash rate would fall to 4.25 per cent by next June, as the RBA seeks to lower the chance of a deep economic slowdown.
"The Reserve Bank wants to head off a serious slump in the Australian economy," Dr Oliver said.
"We could see growth of 1 per cent in the next 12 months: growth will be below trend, falling inflation and the threat of a global slump will push rates lower."
RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said the key driver for rates will be the unfolding global recession "which doesn't look particularly great, despite everything that has been thrown at the system."
Ms Ong forecasts the cash rate to enter stimulatory territory, sub-5 per cent, in 2009, with the boost from the Federal Government's $10.4 billion stimulus package filtering through the economy also.
NabCapital senior markets economist David de Garis said one-off payments that will be made by the Government to pensioners and families in early December should help the economy around the festive season.
"Not all of it may be spent, but something like half to three quarters of 1 per cent of GDP conservatively," he said.
When the RBA slashed the cash rate by 100 basis points on October 7, central bank governor Glenn Stevens noted the high funding costs in wholesale markets.
"The board decided that, on this occasion, an unusually large movement in the cash rate was appropriate in order to bring about a significant reduction in costs to borrowers."
Initially, the big four commercial banks cut their standard variable lending rates by 0.8 of a percentage point.
But eventually the rest was passed on when overseas funding costs eased a little later in the month.
"They (the RBA) got more bang for their buck than they expected," Mr de Garis said.
Toronto Dominion securities senior economist Joshua Williamson said while funding costs for banks were still high, they should still pass the full cut to borrowers.
"There is nothing to say that the banks can't pass on full RBA rate cuts," he said.
The median forecast of economists was for a 4.5 per cent cash rate by the second half of 2009, where they were last in May 2002.
However, deputy RBA governor Ric Battellino said this week tackling higher inflation over time could temper further monetary policy changes.
Mr Battellino said managing the economy would be tougher than in 2001 as headline inflation was higher now than seven years ago.
"This could limit room for manoeuvre on monetary policy," Mr Battellino said.
ICAP senior economist Adam Carr said the RBA would cut rates by only 25 basis points on Tuesday to 5.5 per cent, taking a cautious stance due to still high inflation.
"They don't want to be in a position to not be able to deal with any inflation once we are through the credit crisis and the global economy picks up," he said. |
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