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A Santa Claus rally --今年照样
--金融现象：A Santa Claus rally is a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally seen over the final week of trading prior to the new year. The rally is generally attributed to anticipation of the January effect, an injection of additional funds into the market, and to additional trades which must, for accounting and tax reasons, be completed by the end of the year. Another reason for the rally may be fund managers "window dressing" their holdings with stocks that have performed well.The Santa Claus rally is also known as the "December Effect"。
--历史数据：December is historically the best month of the year for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, especially in years before a presidential election.
Since 1945, the S&P 500 has posted its best monthly performance in December, rising 1.76 percent on average compared to an average gain of 0.66 percent for all 12 months。
December also has the greatest frequency of advances, rising 78 percent of the time compared to 59 percent for all months. And since 1950, it has been the month least likely to have a decline of more than 1 percent。
--明年是美国选举年：in Decembers before an election year, the S&P has gained 3.2 percent on average since 1950 — nearly twice its average annual gain。Since 1941, the Dow Jones industrial average has risen 16 percent on average during the pre-election years, far surpassing gains in other years. The Dow has not had been down in a pre-election year since 1939.
The theory is that “the party in power wants to stay in power so they end up trying to stimulate economic growth. People buy (in the pre-election year) in anticipation of things looking even better next year,”
--综上所诉：12月傳統上是股市強勢月份，而且通常是中小盘股的好日子。在過去20年，美股由11月20日至年尾的上升的次數是18次。中小盘股指數在這段時間平均上升5.6%，蓝筹股平均上升3.4%。感恩節後一周，在過去十年有六次上升，在過去六年更是有五次上升。單計12月，過去十年有七次上升，過去七年有六次上升。由感恩節至年尾，過去十年有八年次上升。
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发表于 2015-12-5 08:05
