CMC Markets专栏: 上周市场回顾，本周大事展望 (23/11-29/11)

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上周市场情况：
上周全球各大股指均有大幅上涨，美国标普指数500一周涨幅3.3%，创一年多以来一周最大涨幅；欧洲斯托克指数50上涨3.3%; 英国富实指数100涨幅达3.5%；亚洲方面，澳指200上涨4.1%，香港恒生指数上涨1.6%。

美元出现高位回撤，澳币有较大幅度反弹，澳币对美元一周涨幅达1.6%，上涨130点；纽币小幅收涨0.3%。欧元继续走低，下滑0.8%，对美元下滑近100点。

美国10年期国债收益率小幅收跌，由2.27%下滑至2.26%；德国10年期国债由0.56%下滑至0.48%。

原油并无明显变化，美国得克萨斯原油收盘41.90美元；英国布伦特原油收盘41.90美元。

上周大事回顾：

日本第三季度GDP环比下跌0.8%，同比第二季度下跌0.2%。这也许证实了许多经济学家的预测，日本经济进入了自总理安倍2012年12月任职后的第二次衰退。根据日本经济现状，很可能使得日本央行在未来的会议中再次加大其宽松力度。

全球乳制品价格再次下滑7.9%，其均价跌至2345美元/公吨，这是继10月20日与11月3日拍卖的第三次下滑。其中，全脂奶粉价格跌幅最大达11.0%， 其价格滑落至2148美元/公吨；脱脂奶粉价格下滑8.1%至1851美元/公吨。乳品价格的持续下滑给新西兰奶农收入带来下行压力。据恒天然乳业估计，本年度乳品价格会经历更多的波动直至2016年上半年才会有所改善。

新西兰第三季度零售数据上涨1.6%，远好与预期0.1%。其中，15个行业中10个行业出现销售上涨，机动车与零件配备行业涨幅最大。整体零售行业表现较强，主要受低通胀与低利率的影响。

美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)10月份会议内容公布, 示意加息是否在12月份加息要依据对于经济形势的再次评估而定，指出加息将循序渐进的进行. 由于本次会议内容并没有如市场投资者所预期般鹰派的强硬，使得投资者情绪与风险与回报比率关系发生变化，消息公布后， 美元高位回撤， 股市全线上扬。


本周大事展望：

周一：新西兰10月份移民人数
     法国11月份制造业、服务业采购经理人指数PMI（闪沽）
     德国11月份制造业、服务业采购经理人指数PMI（闪沽）
     欧洲11月份制造业、服务业采购经理人指数PMI（闪沽）
     -这一系列数据将是检验欧洲各主要国家近期经济生产状况的重要指标，将
      会对欧洲央行在12月份是否实行加大宽松提供依据。

周二：美联储货币政策声明
      德国11月份商业调查-业务预期指数
      澳联储主席Stenvens讲话

周三：美国第三季度GDP（中值）- 第三季度初值录得1.5%， 对本次预期值为
       2.0%， 将对美国货币政策有间接影响。
      美国11月份消费者信心调查
      日本货币政策会议内容

周四：美国10月份核心耐用品订单- 受能源价格低迷影响，核心耐用品订单8月
       份、9月份持续下滑两个月，本次预期上涨0.5%。
      美国申请救济金人数
      新西兰10月份贸易平衡-连续两个月出现较大贸易赤字，主要受中国需求
      减弱影响，本次预期赤字100亿纽币。
      澳洲第三季度私营部门资本开支
      欧洲M3货币供给

周五：日本10月份居民消费
      东京核心消费物价指数CPI
      英国第三季度GDP第二次沽值
     



Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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沙特阿拉伯称将与欧派克国家与其他产油国联合做出努力以稳定全球原油市场，消息公布后，纽约商品交易所美国得克萨斯原油期货价格出现大幅反弹，由当日下跌3.6%急转直上反弹1.34美元，截止撰写本文时间，其价格回落至41.81美元。英国布伦特原油期货价格由同样由昨日低点43.60美元反弹至最高45.70美元后回落至44.96美元。

美国得克萨斯原油价格在上一周在41美元附近逐步有筑底迹象，空头看似已经止住步伐。而昨日的双边震荡一是由于沙特的利好消息出台，再次可能是由于空头力竭，多头补进所致。

昨日纽约商品交易所得克萨斯原油走势（小时）


昨日纽约商品交易所得克萨斯原油走势（年）

数据来源：布伦伯格

受原油价格反弹影响，昨日能源性大宗商品价格均有大幅反弹，纽约商品交易所汽油期货价格上涨2.34%，天然气价格上涨2.84%。
虽说昨日沙特的表态是利好的消息，然而还并没有对市场供大于求的现状有实质上的改变。空头呼声此时仍然强烈，一是由于主体市场对中国经济形势的紧张，虽说不排除有过度反应的可能，但中国需求放缓还是实际情况；二是美联储加息而美元再度走强的考虑，大宗商品有如此急流之下的跌势，对于其计价货币美元的疯长是真理性的逻辑。道理很简单，持有其他货币对于买家来讲其成本太高。

美元指数与贵金属价格指数、原油价格指数走势

数据来源：布伦伯格

与此同时，贵金属类大宗商品价格依旧持续跌势，昨日纽约商品交易所黄金现货价格下跌0.77%，铜价再次下滑1.09%，均以触及6年地位。

由于美联储加息预期与中国的转型还未有明朗规划的现阶段，大宗商品价格的反弹的真正时期还未到来，但鉴于似乎一切已经触及底部，或者说坏到不能再坏的地步，这也是一切明朗之前的最黑暗时期。美联储成员在10月份会议中已经明确表明其将循序渐进的慢慢的加息，这个口径带来的信号是美元也许不会再强到无法控制；而中国的转轨如果步入稳则会逐步祛除全球需求的担忧；欧洲方面昨日各主要10月份国家制造业PMI数据均显示乐观迹象。一些这样的迹象表明，未来转点不会太远。


Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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不懂，帮顶。

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由于澳洲近期经济形势的逐步好转，特别是10月份就业数据的强劲表现使得澳币近期逐步走强。相比澳币，纽币依然显示薄弱，新西兰乳制品价格连续三次下跌，经济前景使得投资者对于新西兰央行在12月份再次降息的预期提高，市场对于新西兰央行是否再次降息的机会也许是一半一半。

从技术形态上看，澳币对纽币依然有望继续走强，短期可能出现小幅回撤。其短期回撤位置可能在1.0900附近，而上方进一步的上测的 潜在目标可能在1.1420附近。


日线图中澳纽走出向上楔形的形态，很有可能在其尖端1.11整数位置附近出现回调，同时这个尖端也是日线图保利加通道上轨附近的位置。短期的回调位置可能在黄金分割线38.2%回荡线附近1.0900左右。
长期图形周线图上看，澳币相对纽币仍然强势，有望经过短期回调后再次上涨，上方的潜在阻力位置将可能在多次探测的前高附近1.1420附近。如果此空间被突破，澳纽将打开进一步的上涨空间。

Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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自2014年开始风行的一个名词“货币政策新常态”始终为中国老百姓不是很了解，也不是很关心的经济术语。所谓“新”与“旧”相对，而“常态”与“非常态”相对。这里的“新”与“旧”指的是什么？而“常态”与“非常态”又指的是什么？

用简单的话来解释， “新”是指货币政策所依托的核心目标将有所改变，中国经济增长目标逐步由“数量型”向“价格型”转变；“数量型”主要是指以国内生产总值（GDP）为主要衡量经济的标准，“价格型”是指以通货膨胀率或者说是物价指数（CPI）为主要的经济增长衡量标准。“常态”是指这种以CPI为货币政策核心目标的经济增长模式将逐步替代过去以GDP为调解货币政策为主要核心目标的标准。

西方国家，如美国、日本、欧洲各国均以通货膨胀率为其货币政策的主要知道指标，即以稳定物价为基本的核心标准。主要是由于以国内生产总值为经济增长主要标准有可能会忽视本国货币的价值变化而不能真实反映出整体经济现状。从一个层面来讲，也可以说GDP 构成核心中是以生产为主导性经济增长模式的体现，比如说房地产开发或者基础设施建设；而CPI是以消费为主导性经济增长模式的标准，这里主要体现在使用金融体系的杠杆儿作用来引导与推动经济增长。

2014年11月份席近平总书记就在欧派克APEC峰会上明确指出了新常态的基本特征：“从高速增长转为中高速增长，经济结构不断优化升级，从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动”。中国央行自2014年以来数次的降息、降准的双将政策，一是加大资金流动性，二是引导消费，以此来逐步达到一个生产与消费的新的制衡点。这也是本次十三五计划中的一个重点，即产业结构优化升级以使经济增长模式达到一个“新常态”。而中国2015年第三季度GDP增长6.9%的结构中显示，第三产业服务业尤其是金融行业占比明显增加，工业生产比重明显萎缩，也是我国经济结构体系转型的一个征兆。

传统的货币政策目标是以经济增长、价格稳定、充分就业、国际收支为标准。在以上的讨论中我们可能忽视了就业与国际收支。就业率方面我国始终保持较为强劲的状态，同时也与社保与医疗及其他各方面福利政策相联系，我国整体福利政策还不能够满足如西方国家的自然失业。

而在国际收支平衡上，由于中国劳动力成本的逐步增加与全球经济增长的放缓，中国很可能逐步缩减顺差额度。人民币依旧面临持续下行的压力，由于美联储的加息预期，使得央行可能为盘活经济与避免资产大量外流风险会再次实行降息。中国出口商品的结构会需要转型升级，以基本的制造业产品向高科技产品进行转型靠拢，而这也是中国经济的“新常态”的又一特点。




Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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昨日，一架俄罗斯战机在叙利亚边境被土耳其军方击落，俄方称土耳其的行为是“暗箭伤人”，是“恐怖主义的帮凶”，此事件引发中东地区与俄罗斯的关系再度紧张。在事件发生后，土耳其股市大跌超过1.5%，俄罗斯股市下跌近2%。而在近日IS恐怖主义逐步抬头的形势下，西方国家、俄罗斯与IS恐怖主义的国际政治局势更加紧张，可能会导致金融市场避险情绪的逐步升温。

昨日，全球股市均有下滑现象，尤其是欧洲股市跌幅明显，欧洲斯托克指数50下跌1.04%，德指30下滑1.43%，英国富实指数下跌0.45%。与此同时大宗商品如黄金、原油有大幅反弹，黄金自昨日低点上涨近10美元，截至本文撰写时间运行1078美元附近；纽约商品交易所原油期货价格承接前日反弹昨日再度上涨最高触及43.46美元，后于42.65收盘。货币市场方面，美元继续回撤，日元与欧元相对走强，今日开盘欧元对美元再次上涨近30点，目前运行于1.0670附近；美元对日元下滑至122.31附近。

土耳其与俄罗斯事件实际上是近日IS恐怖主义与俄罗斯紧张局势而引发的边缘效应，使得近日国际形势有被逐步激化的可能性。事件后，美国总统奥巴马发言认为，土耳其拥有对自己领土、领空自卫的权利，对于是否与俄罗斯在叙利亚驻军有联系，需要对实际情况确定后再做定夺，“要避免任何形式的激化”。

而实际上，如果国际形势愈演愈烈，欧洲有可能是被受影响最大的国家，欧股市场与欧元都有可能由于全球投资的避险偏好降低而撤离，加之欧洲央行可能实行的再次扩大宽松，欧元再度走低的可能性或将无法避免；美国一向是站在战争之外以避之的态度，则美元与美股则仍旧不会受到直接的影响，但由于美联储加息预期的敏感性，也许美元短期回撤也不可避免，美股深局历史高位未必是近期追涨的好时间。

则再回到大宗商品类来看，由于紧张局势接近中东产油国家领域，有可能影响这些地区的原油生产，加之前日沙特对于干预油市的宣称，原油作为必须能源性资源可能会进一步持续反弹。谈及黄金，则是投资者公认的避险性投资产品，金价亦可能出现大幅反弹。

由此看来，大宗商品价格类黄金、原油有可能会是目前局势的较稳定的投资对象。但国际形势迁移莫测，对于短期现状的预测未必是真正的长期趋势。

技术形态上看，美原油潜在的短期进一步反弹目标将有可能在43美元附近，而黄金有可能继续向上反弹至潜在位置1094-1100美元的区间。






Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888

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俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫表示，土耳其击落俄军机是“有计划的挑衅”，认为恐怖份子在土耳其境内策划对其他国家的袭击。但是俄方不将与土耳其开战，他说道“我们对土耳其人民的态度没有改变，只是对土耳其领导层有疑问”。但据新华社消息，俄罗斯同时以其他方式向土耳其施加压力，俄方官员称有可能对俄罗斯修建至土耳其的天然气管道在做评估。另外，由俄罗斯国家原子能公司承建的土耳其核电站“阿库尤”也可能会受到影响。

全球股市在俄方表示不予发站后出现似乎松出一口气，继续将注意力转回金融市场的主流影响力美联储与欧洲央行，鉴于美联储12月16日议息会议上实行自2006年以来第一次加息的预期，经过几日的回调，美元强势再次显现；而随着欧洲央行12月3日会议的临近，由于投资者对其再度扩大宽松的预期强烈，欧股市场出现了大幅的逢低反转的行情，欧洲斯托克指数50上涨1.54%，德指30上涨2.15%，英国富时指数上涨0.96%。

债券市场方面，美国10年期国债收益率并无较大表变动，在周三触及2.2%后，目前仍然在稳定在2.23%。美国2年期国债收益率利差达到 自2月份以来最窄。10年期国债债券市场将在美国感恩节，澳纽时间周五关市。

美国2年期国债与10年期国债收益率利差


资料来源：布伦伯格

德国2年期国债收益率下滑至历史低位，同时西班牙与比利时债券市场也出现相似行情。

货币市场方面，欧元再度下行，昨日最高触及1.0689，随后回落，目前运行于1.0619附近。美元兑日元汇率显现近日的地位反弹，昨日最低触及122.25，后反弹近50点，目前运行于122.72附近。澳币、纽币仍然持续其短期内较强的涨势，主要是由于两国央行最近对于继续降息的预期并不明确，加之由于大宗商品近日的反弹给出澳洲经济形势乐观信号，澳币反弹显强势。

澳纽方面的重要提醒是：近日重点关注新西兰时间上午10点45分，将有新西兰10月份贸易平衡账公布，预期赤字100亿美元。下午1点30分澳洲的 第三季度私营部门投资资本开支，预期-2.8%。这两项数据有可能会是澳币、纽币近日的走势的转点信号。

大宗商品方面，纽约商品交易所美国德克萨斯原油期货价格仍然呈继续反弹态势，昨日先出现回调后再度攀升，一日涨幅0.51%，目前运行于43.08美元。黄金昨日先涨后跌，最高触及1080.05美元附近，后迅速回落10美元之1070附近。

整体上看，市场仍然对于美联储加息预期与欧洲央行扩大宽行动处于警觉状态。


Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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当前金融市场形势下，美联储加息在即，欧央行宽松持续，中国经济整体步入转型，大宗商品价格地位盘整，投资者应该如何总揽全局，对2015年底至2016转点的时刻整理期投资组合并进行方向的选择？基本面上，美国加息势在必然，但美联储着重指出加息会循序渐进，以免带来市场过度的波动；欧洲央行的进一步宽松是实际而动，但复苏之路还是任重道远；中国经济转型是双刃剑，机遇与挑战并存；而大宗商品特别是原油受中东局部地区战事影响与沙特、俄罗斯的参与也是给其又添迷雾。

从技术图形上借读，我们或许可以看出一些较好的投资迹象。在这里我们对列举四大股指进行浅谈：

技术图表上看，以美国标普指数500为代表的美国股市虽然仍然显示涨势强劲，但上方距离其历史最高位置已经极为接近，可能意味着短期再有突破性上涨的空间并不是很大。目前标普指数运行于2100点附近，这里也是潜在的上行阻力位置，上方距离历史高位只有近30余点左右。只有突破上方高位才有可能打开进一步的上行空间。而下放前在的支持位置是整数位置2000点附近。


德指30形态上比美国标普500显示有更大空间上行，而且整体势头更为强劲，上方突破位置可能分别会在11370，11570，然后是前高12240附近。下放前在的支持位置在10月份底点附近10480附近。配合国际形势，在欧洲经济逐步复苏与政策支持下，欧股市场也是较有潜力的市场。


澳指主要是受大宗商品价格与中国经济形势影响较大的一种产品，由于其指数构成中能源性大型企业占较大比重，而中国的进口需求也是影响其市值的主要因素。技术图形上看，澳指短期上行仍然有望，短期的上方潜在目标将在5390附近，如果能够突破此位置，可能会形成潜在的双底形态，则会打开进一步的上行空间，进一步潜在上行目标可能将在5730附近。下放潜在支持位置仍可能在4900-5000点的区间。


香港恒生指数股指构成成分主要是是直接受中国经济影响的股指产品，在中国内陆股市近期又重返“慢牛”的情况下，加之中国政策性影响，其股指上行潜力仍然较大，技术图形上看，短期的上行阻力还是在近期高点23000点附近。但是形态上上行动能仍然可观，如果能够突破23000，则进一步的潜在上行目标可能在23830附近，然后是25000附近。下放潜在支持位置可能在图中黄金分割延展线23.6%回荡线的位置22000点附近。

比较上看，以德指为代表的欧洲股市在目前情况上看，可能是最具潜力的产品；其次是澳指与恒指，由于美股将奉前高，加之美联储加息预期，在此阶段也许并不是很好的买入产品。




Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

bluefish001

shdanding

内容不少,但为什么没几个人回帖呢?广告客户想过没有?

别让广告费打了水漂啊

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前文提及基本面各方信号，欧央行12月份会议在即，欧元与美元的走势可能性将有哪些，以下我们可以来就这两张图来探讨:


欧元 对美元的日线图中明显可以看出，在近日底部出现一些柱身短小的蜡烛，而且下行的坡度渐进平滑，可以看出的是空头动能逐步在减弱，但仍然总体现强势。昨天的上隐线与下隐线基本等长柱子可以看出，多头与空头有些对持的形态出现。
由于市场占绝大部分投资者的预期，欧元对美元在短期内还是很有可能下探到3月份低点1.0460附近，同时此价位也是潜在的强支持位置，如果以黄金分割延展线来看，这也是下方100.0%回荡线的位置



从周线图上看，自欧央行德拉吉10月份会议后，欧元下破了长期的三角区域整理，然后再度首美国10月份农数据影响而实现了突破下跌。此时运行于潜在支持位置1.06附近。根据欧央行12月份3日的口径，很可能在触底1.0460附近后再做方向选择，如果成功跌破此地位，则欧元很可能如市场大部分人预期向美元平价的位置跟进。但同时也不排除先向上反弹至1.08-1.10的空间区域的可能。

Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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12月3日欧洲央行行长德拉吉将再次对其是否加大货币宽松力度进行证词发言。由于对其进一步宽松的强烈预期，市场绝大部分投资者自欧央行10月份会议后已经在接连做跌欧元。目前欧元对美元汇率于1.06附近运行，已距今年3月份低点仅150点不足。从期权市场的信号来看，70%的投资者还是倾向于欧元将再次跌落3月份低点1.0460左右。但同时也有对此持有相反意见的交易者认为德拉吉此次未必迎合绝大部分人的市场预期，不会在此次会议上决议将进一步扩大宽松。

情况只有两种：若12月3日的会议欧央行如期对其资产购买再度实行加大力度的宽松，则欧元很可能跌破3月底为继续向与美元平价的方向运行；反之，则欧元很可能在触及3月份低点后迅速回转反弹，多投跟进，空头平仓，则欧元会走出在一波强有力的涨势，有可能再次向1.08附近靠拢。

回顾欧央行行长德拉吉的会议内容既要，首先，在今年3月份欧洲行长德拉吉表示实行其国债购买的项目，欧元对美元在当月跌至12年低位达 1.0462。随后由于希腊问题周转转移了注意力，并随债务危机逐步缓解后出现较大幅度的反弹，最高触及1.15附近，但数月仍运行于1.15与1.08的区间；后9月份会议中，德拉吉一改鸽派强调，称欧央行暂不会自此实行降息，会观后市而定，导致欧元受短期支撑，直至德拉吉在10月份再次示意将有可能在12月份扩大欧央行的资产购买力度，并表示其将对于宽松的数量、组成及设计等全面再度进行改革。欧元对美元一夜之间大跌200余点，终于下破支撑位置而再无还击之力。而后美联储10月份非农业就业数据再给货币市场有力的一击，欧元再度破位下跌。

欧央行行长德拉吉的意图在于继续使用政策途径使欧元贬值以实现其通胀率的目标。但是是否12月3日的会议是绝对明确的表示全面扩大可能未然，近期的欧洲各国经济数据表现有复苏的乐观倾向，也许欧央行并不会在下周的会议作出绝对表态。

而美联储在12月份16日的议息议息会议也是需要密切关注的一个影响因素，可以说美联储本次实行自2006年以来第一加息比起欧央行的进一步宽松更具有可能性。这对于欧央行的口径可能会有重要的影。由于欧洲央行会议在美联储会议前，德拉吉可能在美国表态会仍然按兵不动，而使得欧元会小幅反弹，而后再做大动作。

技术图形上看，欧元/美元的近期底部支持仍可能在3月份低点附近1.0460， 而上方的潜在反弹目标在可能在1.08与1.10附近。





Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.