CMC Markets专栏: 纽币试探关键支持位置以定方向

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Author: CMC Markets, Tina Teng

昨日全球乳制品拍卖价格再次下滑，加之今日公布的新西兰第三季度就业人数较上一季度下跌0.4个百分点，失业人数上涨2个百分点，失业率上升一个0.1个百分点至6.0%。纽币继续呈压下行，可能将再次测试关键支撑位置0.66整数位附近。


技术形态
整体技术走势上看，由于9月份与10月份两个月出现潜在筑底形态，纽币走势仍显多头的强势迹象。但由于今日的不佳经济数据影响与本周的美国非农数据，使得目前的情况会出现先多空博弈分化行情。目前的临界位置有可能在0.66整数位置附近。向上的潜在空间可能为0.6770，0.6950，0.7080；而向下的潜在位置可能为0.6460-0.6500的 空间。


日线图


如之前对纽币的讨论中所提及，纽币/美元在短期的下降通道中整理下行，此时再次试探通道底部附近潜在的重要支撑位置0.6600附近。若此位置能够支持住则纽币/美元有可能会再次向上测试通道顶部，进而又形成潜在上升旗形的可能性，有可能突破上行测试上方潜在阻力位置0.6770附近，然后是0.6950附近；由于本周将迎来美国10月份非农业就业数据，市场将出现较大的波动行情，纽币/美元也有可能下破支撑位置，向下继续测试进一步的潜在支持位置0.6460-0.6500的区间。


月线图

月线图中显示纽币/美元在长期的下降通道中 下行，而10月份收图形态看来，上方的阻力位置出现在0.6900整数位置附近，如日线图所示，如果0.6600附近的位置可以坚守住，则可能有向上突破此下降通道的可能性。而长期的上方潜在多头目标可能在0.6900，然后是0.7080附近。


        
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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CMC Markets专栏: 美元强势是否从此开始?

Author: CMC Markets, Tina Teng



昨日美联储耶伦再次发表证词表示目前美国经济表现健康态势，12月份加息有望，“国内消费力一直在健稳上行”，如果此数据能够持续表现良好，则12月份实现加息将很有可能。本次证词发言一改往日的保守态度与不确定性，反映出美联储对于12月份加息更加有信心。明显鹰派的的言论使得美国两年国期债收益率涨至0.82%，同时各大股市出现明显回撤，美元继续走强。

但也许美国经济事实并不是耶伦所述的那样完美，10月份ISM制造业采购经理人指数录得50.1, 第二次触及下半年低位，依旧受美元强势与能源价格下行影响, 美国制造业受到打压. 在18个领域调查中一半显示萎缩。昨日ADP非农业就业数据仅增长18.2万人口，是自6月份以来最低增长数量，这也是本周五即将公布的非农数据的参考；第三季度GDP仅增长1.5%，主要受 美元强势导致的出口下滑与工厂库存量减少影响；9月份个人核心消费指数仅录得0.1%，长期无明显增长，差于预期0.2%。

然而市场似乎一直在有意忽视负面消息，近日美元走势再显强势，而美股也欣欣然的持续上行。也许对于投资者来讲，美国经济形势确实比起欧洲宽松、日本宽松、纽澳宽松、中国宽松的各方宽松显势鹰派。在其他各国纷纷降息、宽松的同时美国目前似乎已经到达经济转点，或者说是“黎明前的黑暗”，即将冲破迷雾的时刻。但如果美联储果真在12月份加息，市场是否再次继续之前的美元长期上行之势？也许未必，也许在投资者逐步对此消息消化之后，会找到制衡点做出投资组合的调整。所以此时的交易策略可能是观望为主，伺机而动。

本周的非农数据也许可以看到绝大多数投资大亨对于其方向的选择，根据大势而动始终是交易所应采用的良策。对于美元与美股来讲，盘面上都已经出现高位回撤的位置，如果本次非农数据不能够有突出表现，很可能会是冲高回落的行情。获利回吐也可能会使行情有高位回调出现，关于技术形态方面，下午的文章中会对典型的产品做些进一步探讨。


        
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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与美、欧股市呈明显对照行情，昨日中国股市大涨，创自8月份以来的新高。主要受各方面的利好消息刺激，一方面是中国央行行长周小川称“深港通将与年内开通”，加之十三五计划的出台使得市场信心激增，中国股市又迎来久未见的牛市到来，昨日中国沪指大涨4.31%，其中金融股领涨。
伴随内陆牛市，香港恒生指数，香港中国H股，中国A股50远期也在出现大幅上行。盘面上中国各股仍有较大的上行空间，香港恒生指数有望上行挑战24300点；香港中国H股将可能有望上行至11500点；中国A股50已经涨过历史高位，有望继续上行挑战10800点。









由于美联储耶伦昨日在其证词中表示美国经济良好的复苏态势使得12月份加息有更确定的可能性，美股与欧股市场受其影响而下行，这与中国股市的大涨形成了鲜明的反差。而从整体经济形势上看，中国的宽松是经济转型期的宽松，是进一步扩大经济市场化的标志性举措。央行在10月份再次实行降息、将准的措施后，意味着释放出7千亿到8千亿人民币的资金流动量。虽然市场高呼“中国经济增长下行风险”与“潜在债务危机”等种种风险预警，但中国强大的经济基地是不可忽视的。当经济增长模式逐步转向“消费引导型”后，将有可能带来新的消费增长模式，而金融业与服务业将有可能成为未来主要的支撑板块。

Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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今夜的非农可以说是可能是市场之转点的重头戏，美联储呼喊加息已经有一年有余之久，而昨日耶伦终于吐露较为明确的态度给出下个月加息的极大可能性-“live possiblity”。美国两年期国债收益率冲至4年高位0.83%，美元继续冲高，黄金、原油等大宗商品再度跳水，美股市场高位受阻…市场似乎已经在对非农做出提前反应。但本次非农这场重头戏到底会如何登场？我们可以从以下几方面进行探讨：

美国10月份非农未必乐观
可以肯定说，美国当前就业市场整体情况表现良好，失业率一直稳定改善，目前有望在迈进5%的目标。而对于美国近期的非农业就业市场人数增速却明显放缓，10月份非农业就业增长人数的预期是17.9万人，也是自2014年8月份以来预期值最低的一次，反应了美国的当前就业形势并不是特别乐观。9月份是在2014年9月份以来最差数据14.2万人，本周的ADP数据仅增18.2万人，创自6月份以来新低。昨日公布的申请救济金人数创5周新高，远差于预期的26.3万，看上去各种信号都在暗示本次非农数据不会乐观。

中国经济转型对国际经济的制衡作用
而此时也许另一个具有影响力的事件也许会被人忽视，那就是中国股市近两日的劲猛牛市的显现。由于中国开放“深港通”与十三五计划的影响，股市得到利好刺激出现牛市反弹，中国沪指两日涨幅达5.9%。中国经济转型与深入向国际市场的迈进会是对国际经济大国起到举足轻重的制衡作用。在如此敏感的时刻，美国加息可能会影响其在国际竞争中的影响力。同时，中国很有可能在明年即将加入SDR，人民币将成为国际储备货币而对全球经济起到更大的影响力。同时如果美元继续无终结的走强，欧元与日元再度大幅下滑可能会导致国际经济贸易的失衡而使得美元处于孤立位置。

本次非农很可能会是“虚惊一场”，在之前的文章中也有提及，盘面上看各种形态表现有高位受阻于低位支撑的迹象，美元/日元持续上行，但显示头日渐乏力；欧元/美元低位横盘，底部支持始终未破；美股劲头十足继续冲高上行，并无但却之意；原油横盘多时，还是则机而动。

但还是一句话，敏感时刻，观望为主，让我们静待非农的到来。

Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

毛巴马主席

对的，广发证券开始牛了，是深港通要启动了，问题是谁敢大手笔去当解放军，3400上面套牢盘这么重。

qianlai