欧元点位分析

dingyipu

今天心情不错，在这里没怎么开过帖子，本帖就弄个欧元点位分析吧，英镑、澳元在别的帖子里，这样大家看的时候也可以有针对性。欢迎大家分享自己的分析，当然，也欢迎加分：）

*$1.3640     Strong offers/Jul14 high
*$1.3633     50-dma
*$1.3625-28  T-line off May highs/Jul15 high
*$1.3608     61.8% $1.3640-1.3557 ($1.3620 76.4%)
*$1.3590/600 Strong offers
*$1.3573     Int.Day high Asia  
*$1.3558  ***Current mkt rate 0539GMT Wednesday
*$1.3557     Int.Day low Asia ($1.3562 NY)
*$1.3557     76.4% $1.3512-1.3701
*$1.3550/40  Medium demand/$1.3550 76.4% $1.3503-1.3701
*$1.3520     Medium demand
*$1.3512-03  Jun12-5 lows ($1.3512 T-line off Jul'12 lows)
*$1.3500     Strong demand/Barrier/Stops
*$1.3485/80  Medium demand/$1.3482 Feb6 low
*$1.3477     Feb3 low (2014 low)/Strong support/Large stops

欧元我短期看跌。

dingyipu

谢谢加分：）

Yellen’s testimony once again put the focus back on employment data and its role as a pre-indicator of any moves from the FOMC. Yellen also seemed to suggest that the employment data had been better than expected of late: “If the labor market continues to improve more quickly than anticipated by the Committee, resulting in faster convergence toward our dual objectives”. While this is not necessarily a massive shift to a hawkish stance it is certainly leaning less dovish than previous communications and may well be the beginning to the slow grind higher for the USD from here. With that in mind I continue to look for EURUSD lower and a break of 1.3500 would encourage me to add to my existing short conviction.

Resistance:  1.3640, 1.3680
Support:  1.3540, 1.3500

Dailycfdindex

dingyipu

Dailycfdindex 发表于 2014-7-16 17:51

顶贴的时候也要加分啊：P

Heavy EURGBP selling through the year's lows and broad USD buying post Yellen helped the euro sell off to its lowest levels in almost a month. It is not entirely obvious why the Yellen testimony incited a USD rally; the market initially read the text as dovish but quickly reversed itself, likely on the comment stating that if employment figures continues to improve faster than expected hikes could come sooner. One would have thought such a conditional statement would be obvious, but given how disenchanted people have been with the idea that there will be any change in tone at all from Yellen, it seems that even a whiff of possibility was enough to get people excited. Whatever the precise reason, the USD rally was solid and the Euro was an eager participant. We saw mostly gamma related buying on the move down, but recall that we had seen both leveraged and real money names sell into the bounce on Monday, so most likely there was more of that yesterday in the market as volumes were considerable. The break of 1.3575/90 was somewhat significant, although as I have harped on in many past write-ups the big area to watch below is the 1.3475-00 zone. I remain short EURUSD, and I added EURGBP yesterday as well. Today the focus in the AM will be on the UK jobs data (EURGBP is very much in play), and to a much lesser extent the EZ trade data. There are also several US data points later as well as an important BOC meeting. In the short term, 1.3600/10 should act as resistance, although 1.3635/50 is the optimal sell zone.

dingyipu

交投于55日和200日均线切入点1.3656/77下方，则目前欧元前景为中性至看空，仍瞄准当前的7月低点1.3576，之下有更为重要的2012-2014上涨趋势支撑位1.3511及近期低点1.3503。这些点位仍是通向1.2750的重要突破点。但200周均线切入位1.3427和55个月均线切入位1.3394或在该过程中提供短期支撑。
只有突破1.3701，才能减轻当前的下跌压力，从而可以进一步反弹至61.8%回档位1.3807。若低于该水平，我们会尝试放空操作。

dingyipu

1.3550 will offer a little immediate support, but really we need a close sub 1.3500 to excite technically and draw fresh sellers into the market. Selling interest should be strong in the 1.3600/20 band and it might be worth adding here with a stop now rolled down to 1.3650.

dingyipu

*$1.3678     200-dma
*$1.3650/65  $1.3651-64 Jul10-3 highs/$1.3656 55-dma
*$1.3640     Strong offers/Jul14 high
*$1.3633     50-dma
*$1.3625-28  T-line off May highs/Jul15 high
*$1.3590/600 Strong offers
*$1.3573     Int.Day high Asia  
*$1.3542  ***Current mkt rate 0917GMT Wednesday
*$1.3541     Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.3557
*$1.3540     Medium demand on approach/Stops
*$1.3520     Medium demand
*$1.3512-03  Jun12-5 lows ($1.3512 T-line off Jul'12 lows)
*$1.3500     Strong demand/Barrier/Stops
*$1.3485/80  Medium demand/$1.3482 Feb6 low
*$1.3477     Feb3 low (2014 low)/Strong support/Large stops

dingyipu

First, interest rate differentials (of course): Rate spreads have already moved very far in favour of the USD over recent months.

Second, relative Fed and ECB balance sheet size: We expect things will move significantly in the Dollar's favour over coming months: First as TLTRO take-up means the size of the ECB balance sheet re-expands quite rapidly; second as the Fed balance sheet finally stops expanding (more or less) with the final Fed taper in October.

Third, and pivotal, is Euro zone periphery risk. In our rich/cheap FX strategy work, we use 10Y Spanish yields as an input. The rampant periphery rally ever since 'that' speech from ECB President Mario Draghi two years ago has been a strong explanatory driver of EUR FX resilience. European rates research colleagues have had a magnificent call on this and maintain a bullish periphery view from here. They are still looking for 10Y Spanish yields to fall further, driven by another circa 45bp of Spanish tightening to German Bunds (to +100 bp in spread). In FX strategy we have been thinking ourselves about a late, last (?) melt-up in periphery prices, melt-down in spreads over the summer.

The periphery rally, on-going, has been the main reason why we have opposed consensus USD bullishness for many months, preferring a counter consensus view of a EUR/USD drift higher. Periphery strength explains much of how EUR/USD has been able to defy the gravity of a rate differential story that has moved so significantly against the EUR. Other important factors supporting EUR resilience have been a persistently large Euro zone current account surplus (on-going) and reserves diversification demand for EUR (on-going as reserves growth in Asia and beyond has recently re-accelerated). Periphery strength, current account surplus and a diversification bid could yet hold EUR/USD up for longer.

Ultimately, a lower EUR/USD probably needs to go hand-in-hand-in-hand with a revival in global market volatility and (in turn) with a more durable move higher in front end USD rates. A crushed vol environment isn't an environment where EUR/USD goes anywhere fast and this does not (quite yet) feel like Vol Resurrection time. Meanwhile, markets are already bearish (price) front end US interest rate futures.

BUT the important takeaway from the Janet Yellen testimony yesterday is that the era of Fed guidance is emphatically now finished. The era of complete data dependence has emphatically now begun. Almost by definition that is a bit of a 'vol stirrer'.

Dailycfdindex

看完后，还是不知道：是buy signal 还是sell signal？

dingyipu

Dailycfdindex 发表于 2014-7-16 21:48
看完后，还是不知道：是buy signal 还是sell signal？

瑞银建议在1.3540处做空欧元/美元，目标位看1.3250。

dingyipu

      EURUSD: 强劲 交易量, 偏54% 于 卖盘

Dailycfdindex

现在才像是人说得话，前面都是机器人把戏，各位看官，数字不能照搬，要放在自己的平台上，套在自己的系统里，反复思考，寻找一个更好的点位，有时还要逆向操作。谢丁总，

hongmei886

顶，关注

dingyipu

hongmei886 发表于 2014-7-17 07:30
顶，关注

谢谢加分：）

dingyipu

test of weekly support at 1.3475 is expected and the new downtrend should continue for a deeper correction of a larger trend. Ride it while it’s still fresh.

dingyipu

上次俄美互相制裁威胁时，EURUSD净买入，金价也上涨

dingyipu

opened in Asia at 1.3526 after trading heavy last night on heated EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY sales. A hawkish
turn in Fed expectations helped. Off marginally to 1.3523 early, it edged up to 1.3534 before easing back. Flows were
miniscule. Sentiment towards EUR has turned bearish but the market remains reluctant to sell aggressively. Solid support
from option players and sovereign names is eyed ahead of 1.3500. Stops below look to be building however. Failure to break below 1.3500 could see EUR/USD continue to range till the next US payrolls data.

dingyipu

EURUSD卖盘又入场，可以预见会再次下探1.3521（昨日低点），但是注意已经接近强支撑位，1.3510是10年趋势线，1.3490则是1.4940/1.2042的50%回撤位。

dingyipu

EURUSD在1.3519/20处有大量买盘
1.3503是重要支撑位（6月5日）

dingyipu

高盛会在1.3500追空EUR，或者在1.3575做空EUR。

dingyipu

EURJPY

The cross traded a low of Y136.71 so far this morning, its lowest
since Feb 5, as risk aversion spikes after last night's developments in Ukraine
and Gaza. Euro-yen last at Y136.3, a few minutes after the BOJ minutes, with a
break below Y136.55 likely to encourage further losses, although there has been
reported demand at Y136.50 and stops below, with a break there to see the cross
take on the 2014 low of Y136.22 traded on Feb. 4.

dingyipu

The euro opened at $1.3526 this morning following last night's
$1.3516 to $1.3535 range during the US session. The early risk-off tone coupled
with euro-yen's losses this morning drove euro-dollar down to an early low of
$1.3513. The pair however ran into demand from below the morning lows, and
euro-dollar then spent the rest of the session creeping back up in a mild
rebound. The pair's gains picked up a bit toward $1.3520 and it reached $1.3525
before turning around again. The gains resumed as euro-yen also recovered and
risk appetite improved, with euro-dollar then trading a fresh high for the
session at $1.3528. Initial resistance is noted at $1.3541 with stops noted
above $1.3550, $1.3580 and $1.3600. Stops have also been noted to the downside
at $1.3490 and below.

dingyipu

Euro found bids below 1.3515; some talk of buying are mostly option gamma play. As we move into Tokyo open, Euro firmed up towards 1.3520’s. We should see some offers in the 1.3550’s but understand that short–term accounts have stops in the 1.3580’s. We also hearing stops are building up 1.3490.

dingyipu

The Euro still trades heavily, without as yet really going anywhere. The quandary remains as to whether the market is again getting short towards the low of the multi month range or whether we are set to break and trend lower. The first inflection point which the market is very focused on is the 1.3503 low touched on the day of the June ECB meeting, followed by the YTD low at 1.3476 (early Feb). I am hoping and positioned for a break lower which I feel is justified by fundamentals on both sides of the equation but conscious of the numerous past frustrations. Ideally a break lower occurs today and I plan to add should 1.3500 give way or alternatively sell more ahead of 1.3575 resistance. Technically a weekly close below either or both the 1.3503 and 1.3476 levels mentioned would be very encouraging and suggest a chance of a trend extension towards 1.3300.

dingyipu

6月份低点1.3503/11面临的压力越来越大，汇价日内下破这两个低点、触及5个月新低的可能性很高。为期6天的下跌旗形整理形态在本周初完成後，汇价进一步走低；7月1日高点1.3701可能成为一个更低的高点，若汇价跌破6月低点将确认这一判断。跌破1.3503/11後，空头目标将直指2月低点1.3476、目前位於1.3468的长期上行趋势线。短期阻力位於1.3556/62，这意味著汇价反弹风险有限；更上方阻力关注1.3592。

dingyipu

Forward Looking Surveys Watched. Bearish. Watch: German IFO, M3, ECB bank lending survey, PMIs.

We remain bearish on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY. EUR/USD has breached the lower end of the recent trading range, which, in our view, has provided a significant negative signal suggesting a move lower. This will highlight the broader bearish picture given that the European activity data has been disappointing and inflation remains low. This week we will be watching the German IFO and the PMIs for signs of further weakness.

dingyipu

still favour the single currency as a funder and are sticking to our core short position, desperately keeping discipline and refraining from selling the whole, whilst trading the downward grinding range.

zurgee

欧元跌了。。。

Dailycfdindex

丁总，明后天是否可抓一个反弹,   134502,     134124..       还是继续空降？   谢谢。

dingyipu

As planned we added to our conviction on a clean break of 1.3500; the reason for the move lower yesterday seems a little difficult to nail down as initial expectations of economic sanctions on Russia failed to materialise but EURUSD remained at its lows. We have seen increased activity in the past 24 hours in both spot and option space, with some initial excitement to add to shorts followed by interest to reduce later in the day. As we have argued since 1.3680 this will be a slow grind technical trade and as such little has changed for us. I continue to expect the move lower with bounces back to 1.3500/20 met with good supply.
Resistance:  1.3550, 1.3585
Support:  1.3460, 1.3400, 1.3296