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不久前，美国标普公司(Standard & Poor’s)公司下调了九个欧元区国家的信用等级，包括法国风光一时的AAA，这让三大国际金融评级公司越发不招人待见。现在，中国也加入了这场金融博弈。
标普，穆迪(Moody’s)和惠誉(Fitch)三家霸占了国际评级市场超过90%的份额。这一现状渐渐让中国感到厌倦。
Euromoney年度央行人物，中国人民银行行长周小川就是对此不满的人之一。他之前就敦促中国企业减少对三大评级机构的依赖，并提醒中国企业应该更多地运用自身的风险评估。
China Newsweek援引周小川的话说，当一个企业陷入困境后，其信贷评级会被大幅下调。然而在问题暴露之前，却没有有意义的评级。评级机构所做的就是在放大最好和最坏的状况，并推动危机的发生。
周小川还倡导中国积极参与国际标准的制定。他认为现有的游戏规则完全属于发达国家，发展中国家唯有顺从。但是中国的人口和经济规模决定了中国在国际舞台上应该有自己的声音。
大公国际资信评估公司(Dagong Global Credit)是目前中国最富声誉的本土评级机构。公司首席执行官关建中也在呼吁对国际资信评级规则的改革。当然，这中间也多少包含着利己的成分。
关建中认为，全球经济的复苏唯有依赖国际评级规则的改革。他建议制定一套国际评级准则，用统一的标准来维护其所有成员国的利益。关建中在接受新浪财经采访时说，新体系应该包含由各国政府提名的评级机构。这些机构将齐心协力来制定一套统一的标准。
大公在2010年首次发布了全球第一份非西方评级机构的全球国债风险报告。报告中最引发争议的是，将美国国债风险评定为高于中国国债风险。三大国际评级机构一向认为美国国债是世界上最安全的。在这份报告中，澳洲获得了让人羡慕的AAA。
然而大公在中国国内也遭受非议。大公之前将负债累累的中国铁道部风险等级评定为好于中国国债。国际公认的原则是，一个企业风险不可能低于一个国家风险。
对应中国的崛起，欧元区成员国也在考虑设立自己的评级机构。
China takes on thebig three ratings agencies
http://www.theage.com.au/business/china-takes-on-the-big-three-ratings-agencies-20120124-1qexw.html
With the recent downgrading of the credit ratings of nine euro zone nations by Standard and Poor's - including the cherished triple-A rank for France - the big three ratings agencies have not been winning new friends.
And the latest salvos have been fired from a rather unexpected quarter, China, whose own fiscal strength (as we saw here yesterday) is the envy of much of the world.
Along with S&P, Moody's and Fitch control more than 90 per cent of the international credit rating market - a dominance that is beginning to irk Beijing.
The Chinese central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, aka Mr Renminbi and Euromoney's Central Banker of the Year, is among those unhappy with the big three.
Mr Zhou warned Chinese companies to rely less on the credit assessments of the three giants and urged them to do more of their own due diligence.
"When a company runs into trouble, its credit rating will be ruthlessly downgraded. However, there are no insightful assessments before the problems eventuate. They only amplify the best and the worst of the subject of credit assessment and exacerbate the development of the crisis," said Mr Zhou, according to a report by China Newsweek.
Mr Zhou also advocated a more active Chinese participation in the setting of international rules. He said the existing playbook had been made by developed Western countries and developing nations had no choice but to follow these rules.
However, China's population and economic size now demanded it be heard on the international stage.
The report also took a snipe at the big three agencies' role in the global financial crisis, criticising their triple-A rating of subprime mortgage products as "modern financial magic".
Enter the Dagong
Guan Jianzhong, the chief executive of China's best known domestic ratings agency, Dagong Global Credit, is joining in the call for an overhaul of the international credit ratings regime. Somewhat self-interestedly, of course.
Mr Guan said a global economic recovery was only possible on the back of an international credit ratings reform.
He suggested the creation of a global credits rating system with a uniform standard reflecting the interests of all the members of the international community.
"The new system should comprise a credit agency from every country nominated by its regulatory authority. These rating agencies should work together to create a set of uniform rules," Mr Guan told Sina Finance News, a Chinese news site.
In addition, he also urged the creditors (read China, the largest holder of US foreign debt) to establish an international supervisory committee.
This new body would eventually become an alternative credit ratings system to that of the current system dominated by the big three.
Making waves
Dagong made headlines in 2010 when it published its inaugural report on global sovereign debt risks, the first by a non-Western ratings agency.
The most controversial feature of the report was its assessment that the debt risk of the US was higher than that of China - a judgment that jarred with the consensus among the big three that US government debt was the safest in the world.
For what it's worth, Dagong rated Australia with a coveted triple-A. (That made it four out of four.)
Dagong, though, is not above criticism itself. It's been criticised in China for its credit rating of the heavily indebted Ministry of Railways, which scored higher than China's sovereign credit rating. The call was an apparent breach of the international norm that a company can never score higher than its sovereign.
Euro zone members are also considering setting up their own ratings agency and in fact, the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament is holding a meeting today to discuss the very topic.
The credit ratings wars have just begun.
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〖毛家每日私房菜〗 No.70 → 三做豆腐脑/花 (2006-10-15) powermao 
发表于 2012-1-24 14:30
