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Near the beginning of 2012, the NJV should be at full production. This depends on the loading facility being ramped up to cope with 5Mtpa.
I admire the "Go get um" attitude of BCI management. Some may have preferred a cautious approach. To delay production until BCI received approvals. Than work on awarding contracts for trucking and Mine camp construction.
For me, NO WAY. If we never backed ourselves and our abilities we'd never go anywhere or do anything. Go for it BCI management, back yourselves.
FMG were responsible for the 6 month delay for not signing the NJV back in June 2009. But only offically signing in December 2009. That delayed proceedings by 6 months. If it was up to BCI management we would have been close to mining already. It's a shame that BCI management was left to "Carry the Can" for something that wasn't it's fault. FMG wanting to see the offical test pit results before signing was unneccessary looking at what BCI had to offer regarding proof of the quality of the Nullagine ore.
What made it worse for BCI management was that they couldn't say a thing. They had to swallow their pride and try to make the best of the situation. BCI management couldn't blame FMG for the delay. The circumstances are, BCI is relaying on FMG for infrustucture, the last thing that BCI management could or want to do is "Bag" FMG for not signing right from the start. So not a word could of been said by BCI management for the delay, which must have been frustrating for BCI management.
Regarding future deadlines. I'm sure that there maybe a few bumps on the way. But if any company's management could deliver, BCI management could.
At the 2009 "Diggers and Dealers Conference", Atlas Iron won miner of the year. I nominate BC Iron for 2010 miner of the year. Why not? They will be producing at the end of this year because they made the decision to communicate with FMG right at the start once BCI realised that they had a feasible mine. NO other miner chose to do this except for AGO. AGO in the end decided to walk away from their MoU with FMG. Time will tell whether that was the correct decision. I say, as time goes by, it'll get harder and harder for AGO to strike a favorable deal with FMG. Not neccessarily because FMG doesn't want to rail AGO ore. But FMG are stretched already with their loading facilities etc.
It absolutely AMAZES me when Juniors pull numbers out of the air like BRM's 17Mtpa and expect they will be able to get that amount of IO to port on someones rail. FMG is struggling at the moment with 40Mtpa (memory). Do they really think that FMG wouldn't like to export 60, 80t a year. Of course FMG would. But Ultimately, until FMG can get a Multi Billion cash injection from Chinese investors FMG's hands are tied. People don't understand this issue. It's not only about having a rail line, it's also having the loading facilities as well to get the IO onto a Train, as well as enough Trains, to get the stuff to the port. To note, the reason the NJV is only producing 3Mt in the first year is because there isn't the loading facilities to handle 5Mt. FMG is pushing to handle an extra 2Mt of NJV IO until 2012, they are that stretched. How the heck does BRM think, that FMG could cope with 17Mt of extra IO to load.
As for BHP being an option. BHP has said that the earliest that Third parties could obtain access to BHP rail is 2014. And that's only on the unlikely chance that BHP doesn't appeal if it losses it's court case. In the court case FMG could only find 20Mt of spare capacity on BHP rail. FRS and BRM combined are looking for 30Mtpa. AGO is looking of rail capacity as well as FMG for Mindy Mindy. All up, 4 miners are fighting over 20Mt of spare capacity. By the time BHP are forced to hand over Third party access they WILL be at full capacity which means BHP doesn't have to give Third party access. There's also the question on BHP's conduct if they are forced to give over Third party access. BRM may wish to export 17Mtpa on BHP rail. But Ultimately, that's up to BHP on how "Nice" they wish to play with these Third parties.
The other thing to consider is what BCI posters have been discussing about recently. The fact that at the moment Port Hedland is restricted to 6Mtpa of trucking into the town itself. This not a figure that can rise because that is the limit of what the roads can cope with. So hauling the IO by roads isn't an option either.
At present, we can't really seperate BCI from other miners because other junior miners are making the same noises regarding Infrustucture deals as BCI is. However, time will tell us to whether any of the other Juniors wishes come true. From what I've said above, I doubt that they will. I'm including other miners such as FRS, FMS, GIR and even potentially the big and mighty AGO in this mix.
I give it until Christmas 2010 for the "Penny to drop with these Juniors". It's all very exciting for them to expect an Infrustucture deal to come shortly for 17Mtpa. I'm sure as I type these words, they're doing up future projections on that amount of DSO they will be exporting and the fact that these Juniors are soooooooooooooooo under-rated. BRM's management I'm lead to believe as told BRM shareholders that they can expect some sort of Infrustructure deal by the middle of the year.
I guess time will tell on whether I'm right, and they won't .... Or they're right and they do.
Just to end, some info I found interesting. I found this in DJ Carmichael's Iron Book 2007.
http://www.brockman.com.au/pdf/r ... ok_DJCarmichael.pdf
On page 8 it mentions the shipping rates for Chinese mills.
South America (Vale) to China, it is US$70 to US$100t
Australia to China, it is only US$25 to US$35t |
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准备姜醋 - 两年前写的,来捞点分 (2008-12-30) janine 
终于买到了理想的corolla，填坑完毕，欢迎加分助我早日摆脱光脚族 ：） (2008-5-15) distantmusic 
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发表于 2010-9-28 22:41
