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本帖最后由 louis161 于 2019-6-1 14:09 编辑
Capital Economics 最新的预测,供大家参考.比较有趣的是以下的一张图.虽然大家感觉房价还是比较高.但是随着利率的不断下降,房贷占收入的比例已经接近长期的平均值32.5%.也就是说房贷的可负担性并不会想得那么差.房价进入一个“相对合理”的价格范围。个人感觉：自主房可以贷到款的可以考虑入场了。再进一步下跌的空间比较小。
附上AFR的原文：
The housing market will rebound early next year with property prices to rise by 3 per cent in 2020 and another 5 per cent in 2021, Capital Economics has forecast.
But before that occurs, dwelling values have another 3 per cent to fall from their current levels, with an accumulative 13 per cent fall from peak to trough expected, the economic research consultancy said.
Australia is in the midst of the largest downturn on record, with property prices across the capital cities having already dropped 9.4 per cent since they peaked in mid 2017.
Property prices are expected to rebound in early 2020, according to Capital Economics. Louie Douvis
With just two days left in the month, Capital Economics expects the property market to rack up another 0.7 per cent drop in values in May, which would bring price falls across the country's capital cities to more than 10 per cent.
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But Capital Economics senior economist Marcel Thieliant said there were signs the downturn was starting to abate.
"The severity of the slump means that housing affordability has already improved substantially and will improve further if the RBA cuts interest rates over the coming months. New housing supply has dried up and the regulatory authority has indicated that it will loosen lending restrictions," Mr Thieliant said.
An expected interest rate cut in June and APRA's likely scrapping of the 7 per cent mortgage rate serviceability test for borrowers have contributed to a "quadruple whammy" of factors that has led to improvement in the housing outlook and caused some economists to bring forward the timing on their original predictions of a market trough.
Mr Thieliant said if the Reserve Bank cuts rates – he expects rates to be slashed by 0.75 per cent before the end of the year – it could soon become the cheapest time to buy a house since the global financial crisis.
"We have been arguing that house prices aren’t as overvalued as the surge in the house price to income ratio over the last few decades would suggest. That’s because of a structural decline in interest rates and rental yields," he said.
"Even in the absence of interest rate cuts, continued growth in household incomes means that by the end of 2021 affordability will be broadly in line with its historical average."
Mr Thieliant said a turnaround in the property market should boost consumption growth, but warned the drag on property investment and inflation could remain until mid 2020.
He expected dwelling investment to fall by 8 per cent in 2020, just slightly less than the 10 per cent drop that had been forecast for 2019.
"The drag on housing construction may linger a little longer. Following previous downturns, real dwellings construction on average reached a bottom only two quarters after the trough in house prices," he said.
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美食美刻---我家的重口味第四波--夫妻肺片，农家鱼，红烧猪尾，黑胡椒牛舌，三杯鸡，遵义牛肉粉蒸肉 (2014-3-12) ta_xiang 
发表于 2019-6-1 12:30
