Residex End of Year Wrap

kingsford

http://www.residex.com.au/newsle ... &from=news1208b (Warning: property industry report.)
* For the year to November housing assets across Australia presented a modest rate of growth of 2.97%. Yes, in real terms a reduction of 2%.
* 5 year prediction (2009-2014) -  annual growth
House: 2.96%
Unit:1.49%

kingsford

即使在地产行业自己的乐观估计下(calling bottom on all cities,except Canberra), 未来五年的房价总的来说在"real term"将是负增长.这只是房价,如果考虑到维护及其他费用,"投资"前景不容乐观.

wil

"It has been a year that has proved to all that housing is a lower risk asset than any other. We have seen share markets adjust by about 40% and our super funds suffer a reduction of something in the order of 40% also. Had they have invested in housing, then we would have seen a significantly less fall in value. For the year to November housing assets across Australia presented a modest rate of growth of 2.97%. Yes, in real terms a reduction of 2%."

“While industry and share markets can expect lower cash flows our housing markets will continue to provide increasing cash flows (rents) which will reduce the risks even further in an environment where interest rates are reducing. Rentals continue to increase across our cities. The rate of rental growth is slowing a little but the basic shortage of supply will continue to cause increases. Yes, in the upper cost areas of our cities we have seen some easing but that is natural given the significant job losses in the finance sector.

In short, housing continues to demonstrate its long term low risk status having adjusted relatively little and is unlikely to adjust much”

“I remain favourably disposed to investment in NSW and in particular Sydney. It has seen a prolonged period of adjustment and the population will cause government to act as we have seen with the recent actions in support of the NSW Government by the Federal Government. There are bargain buys in this market and it is subject to a chronic supply issue. It will provide a total return which will be attractive in the longer term.”

文章作者似乎对sydney房产抱有乐观态度。以cash flow降低风险等待long term capital gain，这点上赞同作者的观点，毕竟residential property的capital gain是不可预期的，而能控制的只是cash flow和property management。

wil

不知道为啥，这篇文章更加加强了我投资房产的信心了

不过看到后来不停要我去买它的report。。。

kingsford

原帖由 wil 于 2008-12-16 12:24 发表
不知道为啥，这篇文章更加加强了我投资房产的信心了

不过看到后来不停要我去买它的report。。。

所以我要warn你,这是地产行自己的report啊.....呵呵.
据别人的comment,这个report是现在为止(12月)最乐观的,包括其他地产业的自家预测.

wil

恩。其实很有趣，去年这个版总有人贴这个房怎样，那个房怎样，说明大家都在到处看房。现在这样的帖子少多了，代之的是经济走势的口水大战。经济学家们各个机构也都跳出来试图前瞻走势，这是个很有趣的时期。这个过程中学到不少也明白不少东西。

MingDeng

有趣的讨论...学习了！