养老中心EHE融资减债最后一跌？

yourock

BIH 发表于 2016-9-5 10:54
政府出收費指引，說health care有些費用不能收

难怪。看来这股票悬阿。奔SGH而去了？

BIH

yourock 发表于 2016-9-5 11:28
难怪。看来这股票悬阿。奔SGH而去了？

難說，要研究下究竟影響有多大。每個公司情況都不同。也許超賣了

wanghui1015

bondzh 发表于 2016-9-5 11:00
能分析一下reg吗？谢谢

REG有关注的，Balance sheet健康，现金流强，债务不多，但盈利能力是否能兑现，是个很大的问号。

政府不同意额外的每天每人$15的资本性质收费，这对盈利的影响比我预想的要大，每年每床要少收$5000，每年损失至少30m，收入的6%就这么没有了，加上政府补助减少，Margin进一步会压缩，REG每年花一亿五左右去买和建新设施，这点比其他两家要好很多，但是盈利增长未来两年基本就是零，很可能负增长，加上整个板块不被看好，PE给15都不保险。

排除收购等手续费，正常年盈利$56.8m，EPS0.19，未来几年除非减少资本投入，降低利息支出和折旧，否则EPS很难大幅增加兑现承诺，给PE15的话$2.85，PE20的话$3.8，就看你对这个板块未来怎么看了。

dragonballz

wanghui1015 发表于 2016-9-5 12:23
REG有关注的，Balance sheet健康，现金流强，债务不多，但盈利能力是否能兑现，是个很大的问号。

政府不 ...

Aged care is slight different from hospital. Government has lots of public hospitals but negligible public aged care facility. Comparably it is the GP clinics face similar pressure. So PRY would give a good example for how funding cut affects its share price heavily in short term.

When government cuts funding and cost in this growing area, aged care facilities will be forced to either take the loss or increase the fees. Most of them, I would say, will choose the latter to survive. Since only 3 big groups of aged care over there, they obviously could copy the model of 4 big banks. In the long run, old people/their families and almost every Australian will suffer not the aged care facilities.

At current price dropping, I think again and choose to stay but not buy any more to observe what next happens (I have not many choices though )

wanghui1015

dragonballz 发表于 2016-9-5 12:41
Aged care is slight different from hospital. Government has lots of public hospitals but negligibl ...

I think we didn't do enough research on the whole sector before buying in.

So far as I know, there are a lot of non-profit facilities and family run low cost facilities out there. Three listed aged-care are just a fraction of the whole industry. They can't be compared to banking in any level.

It is sad and shocked to see the share price moving in this way. I didn't see this coming at all.

dragonballz

wanghui1015 发表于 2016-9-5 12:51
I think we didn't do enough research on the whole sector before buying in.

So far as I know, ther ...

me neither

so much shorters there.

Weird thing is: merryl lynch becomes a substantial holder under Regal fund management on 2/9/16 and rated EHE down today.

I will restrain from any further buying but not selling anything to observe what will happen next. current average price still 3.4 though

Joh0

wanghui1015 发表于 2016-9-5 10:42
脊背发凉啊，周五执行纪律止损真是走了狗屎运了。

幸运幸运，纪律一定要遵守。

Joh0

当时就有种SGH当年的感觉，所以当时决定止损，看来没错。

wanghui1015

Joh0 发表于 2016-9-5 12:56
幸运幸运，纪律一定要遵守。

I shouldn't buy in at the first place based on my first post. Not a good discipline example.

178078020

yourock

dragonballz 发表于 2016-9-5 12:55
me neither

so much shorters there.

$3以下你又进了？

dragonballz

yourock 发表于 2016-9-5 13:31
$3以下你又进了？

actually $2.40 to make my average price $3.4

Joh0

dragonballz 发表于 2016-9-5 13:32
actually $2.40 to make my average price $3.4

这个风险比较大了，虽然不能完全和Sgh 比，但是最近只有反弹，反转的可能性很小，希望你保本或有盈利就先出来看看。。。

bondzh

Joh0 发表于 2016-9-5 14:08
这个风险比较大了，虽然不能完全和Sgh 比，但是最近只有反弹，反转的可能性很小，希望你保本或有盈利就先 ...

3.4 保本出来还是挺有难度的

lynn0227

bondzh 发表于 2016-9-5 14:16
3.4 保本出来还是挺有难度的

其实今天胆子肥一点多进一点已经盈利出了。。。。。唉我这技术还是太差