欧元点位分析

dingyipu

We have all seen this script play out before in EURUSD, however yesterday’s move did have a fresh feel to it and despite the very good gamma bids ahead of 1.3450, it does feel that a break of this level could see quite a quick extension towards 1.34.

老-猫

EURGBP这波反弹后，继续看低到@0.7860

hongmei886

欧元还在跌！

dingyipu

dingyipu

*$1.3500-10  Medium offers/Stops
*$1.3485     Recovery high off $1.3438 Jul24
*$1.3470-85  76.4% $1.3485-21
*$1.3461     61.8% $1.3485-21
*$1.3440-50  Medium offers ($1.3445 38.2% $1.3485-21)
*$1.3436     Int.Day high Asia (23.6% $1.3485-21)
*$1.3429 ***Current mkt rate 0549GMT Monday
*$1.3427     Int.Day low Asia
*$1.3424     200-wma
*$1.3421     Jul25 low; fresh 2014 low
*$1.3420     Medium demand on approach/Stops
*$1.3412     Option linked stops
*$1.3409     1.618% swing of $1.3438-85
*$1.3400-399 $1.3400 Option barrier/Nov21 low/Strong support
*$1.3390     Stops

dingyipu

依然看跌。EURUSD is entering the week not far from the lows of a two week selloff that has been downright impressive given the overall low vol environment and the lack of any bounce in US yields. US real money names were sellers last week while faster money accounts continue to trade on both sides. This week has plenty of potential action in store: month-end flows, the FOMC, German and EZ composite flash HICP, and of course US unemployment, just to name the highlights. 1.3400/10 is the first level on the downside, and 1.3460/80 should be well offered now on any bounce.

shdanding

dingyipu 发表于 2014-7-28 09:23

抱歉，只有特定用户可以下载本站附件

什么意思啊？怎么下载不了？？求解。。。

dingyipu

shdanding 发表于 2014-7-28 18:58
抱歉，只有特定用户可以下载本站附件

什么意思啊？怎么下载不了？？求解。。。 ...

EURUSD
*$1.3500-10  Medium offers/Stops
*$1.3485     Recovery high off $1.3438 Jul24
*$1.3470-85  76.4% $1.3485-21
*$1.3461     61.8% $1.3485-21
*$1.3440-50  Medium offers ($1.3445 38.2% $1.3485-21)
*$1.3442     Int.Day high Europe, Asia $1.3435
*$1.3439 ***Current mkt rate 0925GMT Monday
*$1.3427     Int.Day low Asia
*$1.3424     200-wma
*$1.3421     Jul25 low; fresh 2014 low
*$1.3420     Medium demand on approach/Stops
*$1.3412     Option linked stops
*$1.3409     1.618% swing of $1.3438-85
*$1.3400-399 $1.3400 Option barrier/Nov21 low/Strong support
*$1.3390     Stops

EURGBP
*stg0.7980/85 Strong offers/Stops/stg0.7980-81 Jul 14-15 highs
*stg0.7956    76.4% stg0.7981-0.7874
*stg0.7950    Strong offers
*stg0.7940    61.8% stg0.7981-0.7874/stg0.7940 Jul24 high
*stg0.7933    Nov25 high/21-dma
*stg0.7923    61.8% stg0.7933-06
*stg0.7918    Int.Day high Europe, Asia stg0.7913
*stg0.7914 ***Current market rate 0932GMT Monday
*stg0.7907    Int.Day low Asia (stg0.7906 Jul25 low)
*stg0.7901    76.4% stg0.7889-0.7940/Bids to stg0.7900
*stg0.7899-90 61.8%-76.4% stg0.7874-0.7940
*stg0.7889    Jul24 low
*stg0.7874    Jul23 low(23-mth low)/E1.2700/1.618% swing stg0.7915-81
*stg0.7865    T.Line off Jun16 lows
*stg0.7850    Medium demand

EURJPY
*Y137.82/84 50% of Jul range Y139.28-136.36, 21-day ma
*Y137.75/80 Medium offers
*Y137.60 Market stops
*Y137.50 Strong offers
*Y137.34 22 Jul high
*Y137.20/25 Medium offers (Y137.25 - 25 Jul high)
*Y137.00 Offers on approach (Y136.92 - Intraday high)
*Y136.88 ***Current market price 0945GMT Monday
*Y136.64 Intraday low
*Y136.57 76.4% of Y136.36-137.25
*Y136.50 Demand on approach
*Y136.36 24 Jul low
*Y136.22 2014 low - 4 Feb
*Y136.00 Demand on approach, barrier, stops

shdanding

dingyipu 发表于 2014-7-28 20:23
EURUSD
*$1.3500-10  Medium offers/Stops
*$1.3485     Recovery high off $1.3438 Jul24

这张图还有点意思，今天没分了，明天补上。

关于周线，我之前也贴过图，思路差不多。

lovely123

shdanding 发表于 2014-7-29 00:21
这张图还有点意思，今天没分了，明天补上。

关于周线，我之前也贴过图，思路差不多。

个人觉得欧元的上涨趋势（支撑）已经在更早的时间跌破。这条长期的趋势线对欧元的支撑实际上是很有限的。
欧元应该还是要下跌但下跌力度应该不会特别特别大。我觉得可能在1。33-1。32之间止跌。
下次上图

shdanding

lovely123 发表于 2014-7-29 07:44
个人觉得欧元的上涨趋势（支撑）已经在更早的时间跌破。这条长期的趋势线对欧元的支撑实际上是很有限的。 ...

5月份的图，所以当时观点还是偏保守，先看回撤。

现在看可能转势了，这个图形是个终结楔形。当然这些都只是瞎猜，做好应对更重要。

dingyipu

shdanding 发表于 2014-7-29 11:50
5月份的图，所以当时观点还是偏保守，先看回撤。

现在看可能转势了，这个图形是个终结楔形。当然这些都 ...

Very quiet day yesterday in the Euro yesterday from a range perspective, although we did see a number of flows. Whilst we did see some profit taking by leveraged accounts, we also saw a decent amount of real money selling. We had seen some of this last week as well and it appears now to be picking up. Despite the significant event risk later this week, there is not much to sink one's teeth into on the data front today. It is however the final trading day of July for spot settlement, so if history is any suggestion we may see further supply of EURUSD as US corporates repatriate dollars. I would note, however, that we have already seen some corporate selling of EURUSD over the past week, possibly pre-empting month-end, plus the market is well aware of this pattern, so I would not advocate being short solely for this reason. I do still favor being short though and have not pared back my position at all as I believe we have further to go in this move. 1.3300 is my initial target, and I will reassess above 1.3510/15. 1.3465/85 should be well offered at this point.

ricoguy

美国GDP 4%，Euro又狂跌

dingyipu

ricoguy 发表于 2014-7-30 23:16
美国GDP 4%，Euro又狂跌

高盛增仓空EURUSD ,目标1.3350和1.3295（11月降息后低点）阻力位在1.3400

dingyipu

No major policy announcement is expected at ECB meeting on Thursday, but ECB President Draghi is likely to reaffirm the central bank’s commitment to using extraordinary policy measures to ease monetary conditions, including the prospect of ABS purchases, and address very low euro area inflation. Also next week, a series of euro area services PMIs are due for release; we forecast the final euro area services and composite measures to print at 54.4 and 54.0 (consensus: 54.4 and 54.0), respectively (Tuesday). Euro area retail sales (Tuesday; Barclays: 0.1% m/m; consensus: 0.5%), German factory orders (Wednesday; Barclays: 0.5% m/m; consensus: 0.9%) and German IP (Thursday; Barclays: -0.5% m/m; consensus: 1.3%) may also gain some attention.

dingyipu

dingyipu

ECB Preview: No change today but focus on contingencies for more action later  We expect no significant announcement  The ECB governing Council met yesterday and this morning for its regular monthly meeting, and ECB President Draghi will hold the usual press conference this afternoon after the policy announcement at 12:45 London time. We expect no change in policy after the comprehensive package presented in June and detailed in July. The focus will be on the press conference and the assessment of latest economic and financial developments: we expect the ECB to take stock of the ongoing weakness in growth and inflation and reiterate its commitment to implement further easing measures should the situation worsen in the second half of the year.

dingyipu

欧元/美元：未能收在月线图云区底部1.3338美元下方。相对强弱指标与蜡烛图上的锤线背离，双双暗示短线料会有反弹。倘若反弹受制于三个月下行趋势，这将不会影响到空头图型。

dingyipu

dingyipu

奥巴马的讲话太有水平了，真的出乎意料，时间点选得真让人郁闷，本来等澳元再跌跌的，现在倒好，直接冲上去了。有几个大行的EUR空单已经止损了...

dingyipu

欧元/美元：上周蜡烛图上出现锤子线后，欧元/美元回落，不过依然在阻力位1.3475下方，而克服这个阻力，才能有更强力的回升。欧元需回升突破1.3500，才能上看1.3570和1.3640目标。支撑位在上周低点1.3333。

dingyipu

Euro-dollar opened at $1.3394 within a $1.3383-$1.3415 range
appearing to have run out of steam following the previous Friday's strong rally,
with supply via the crosses limiting any rally, keeping the pair on the
defensive. A complete lack of US economic data and speakers meant that any price
action would be driven by geopolitical developments. Comments from NATO's
Rasmussen that sees no sign of Russian troops withdrawing from close to Ukraine
border and there is a high probability that Russia could intervene militarily in
Eastern Ukraine, kept the euro under mild pressure as it drifted back to the
day's low of $1.3383( 50% $1.3333-$1.3433). The day's trend of selling minor
rallies persisted after stalling at $1.3389 and the pair edged lower to an
intraday low of $1.3381 where demand emerged to help put a base in, although
remained heavy into the close. European data starting Tuesday with German/EZ ZEW
survey may boost activity, with traders mostly looking to fade any rallies back
into $1.3430/50 area to re-establish/add to euro short positions.

dingyipu

hold a core short, will look to add if we get a rally back to 1.3400/20 with a stop above 1.3450. First support is at the YTD low (1.3333) followed by 1.3295 (Nov ’13 low) and see scope towards 1.3250 into Jackson hole

dingyipu

周一走低，重回1.3400下方。相对强弱指标跌破50一线，而乖离率的移动平均值(MACD)转为负值，似乎将跌破信号线。鉴于此，而且如果今天出炉的两项德国ZEW指数双双下滑，欧元/美元料进一步走跌和挑战上周低点1.3330美元。总体走势仍偏空，因汇价正处于长期下行通道，日线图高点与低点连成一线；但只有跌穿1.3300，才能确认未来低点下移，并且可能巩固趋势。

Jack1688

dingyipu 发表于 2014-8-12 18:47
周一走低，重回1.3400下方。相对强弱指标跌破50一线，而乖离率的移动平均值(MACD)转为负值，似乎将跌破信号 ...

欧元是一个headache for big funds 在半年, they wouldn't make money.

fundy aspect:
growth is no hope, inflation seem dead, interest rate seem dead. deflation ? stagfl ?
ECB monetary policy want euro down with its tools, currency war is there,too.
Ukraine crisis, sanction with Russian are drag for euro.

Only german is still positive for euro. Recently german got soft data. But, german got
deep couple economic link with China. German can still growth, may be slow a bit.

On thurs, EZ GDP data is key for EU growth expectation. If good gdp 2.5 - 3.5, euro may
bounce up to start a up swing leg after few months correction.

In terms of currency war, USA won't like $ to rise. So, some operation behind scene may
push usd $ to down further. Fed won't hike yet. Fed may be a black hand to point $ down.

tech aspect:
daily chart, double top from 1.4000 has completed its target at 1.3340. so, they may take
profit. 1.3440 to 1.3340 range is on place. 1.3295 to 1.3995 form a big range.
down side pressure may drop.  if euro move above 1.3660, then, bull run again.
fail 1.3660, then, euro will down to 1.2660 before Xmas.

short-term, watch 1.3350 to 1.3330 range. above, bull run 1.3660-1.3700; below 1.3330,
bear run 1.3150 to 1.3100.

dingyipu

Euro-dollar began the US session at $1.3345 having fallen to a low
of $1.3336 in the European session following a much softer German ZEW report
with both the current situation and expectation components well below market
forecasts. However support was seen from large option expiries between
$1.3340-50 ahead of the Aug 6 low of $1.3333 and this continued to provide some
demand as an early dip to $1.3341 found some gamma buying which led to a gradual
recovery back to the daily 50% level of $1.3361 where sellers re-emerged.
Another dip ahead of the option expiries found demand at $1.3351 and rallied
back to $1.3359 as cable led the way trying but failing at first attempt to
climb back above $1.6800. Stronger headline US JOLTS Jobs Opening data helped
put a modest bid into the dollar leading to renewed euro sales and despite lower
revisions to the previous it fell back to $1.3345. Once again led by cable which
broke above $1.6800 the euro found fresh buyers and it grinded higher eventually
to $1.3370, before easing back ahead of Wednesday's German/French CPI and US
Retail Sales data.

dingyipu

*$1.3500 Medium offers/Stops
*$1.3475/85 Strong offers/$1.3482 T-line off May high
*$1.3445-50 Strong offers/$1.3445 Aug1 high post NFP
*$1.3433 Aug8-Aug4 highs/Trader reports like fading $1.3430-50
*$1.3396 NY high Aug11
*$1.3386 Int.Day high Asia
*$1.3368 ***Current mkt rate ***
*$1.3340-50 Area of large option expiries
*$1.3336 Int.Day low Europe, Asia $1.3368
*$1.3335-30 Strong demand/$1.3333 Aug6 (fresh 2014 low)/Stops
*$1.3325 Barrier
*$1.3318 T.Line off Apr4 (supported Aug6 $1.3333)
*$1.3300 Strong support/$1.3300 Barrier
*$1.3295 Nov7 low(key support)
*$1.3280/70 Medium demand/$1.3271 1.618% swing $1.3333-1.3433

Jack1688

dingyipu 发表于 2014-8-13 09:18
*$1.3500 Medium offers/Stops
*$1.3475/85 Strong offers/$1.3482 T-line off May high
*$1.3445-50 Stron ...

Hi, 楼主,
这些level 是你分析. 还是别处的.
level is too close? 那个重要点?

dingyipu

Jack1688 发表于 2014-8-13 18:39
Hi, 楼主,
这些level 是你分析. 还是别处的.
level is too close? 那个重要点?

level是data feed. 重要的当然是strong level了，其他的都是技术位，参考。


今日期权到期：EUR/GBP: 0.8000 (652M), 0.8010 (803M)

dingyipu

Huge bids uncovered in Eur from here 1.3302  1.32975