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本帖最后由 kolinxu 于 2024-3-31 17:41 编辑
原文里面有图表的，感觉之前也有波动啊，为何这一次要单独拿来说事呢？
很奇怪的是，路透的文章说大豆进口减少，是因为生猪存栏量减少
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China's Q1 Soybean Imports Slow to Four-Year Low as Pig Herds Shrink
由于生猪存栏量减少，中国第一季度大豆进口放缓至四年来最低水平
"Sow inventory is still higher than rational levels," JCI's Rosa Wang says. "We are predicting an abundant supply of pigs this year but it will depend on whether the pig farms will liquidate their sows and how fast."
"Sow inventory is still higher than rational levels," JCI's Rosa Wang says. "We are predicting an abundant supply of pigs this year but it will depend on whether the pig farms will liquidate their sows and how fast."
“母猪存栏量仍高于合理水平，”JCI 的 Rosa Wang 表示。 “我们预计今年生猪供应充足，但这将取决于养猪场是否会淘汰母猪以及淘汰的速度。”
(Reuters) （路透社）
By REUTERS January 16, 2024
China's once-soaring soybean demand will slow by about a fifth in the first quarter from a year earlier after record slaughter shrank pig herds, pressuring prices ahead of an expected glut of South American beans, analysts and traders said.
分析师和贸易商表示，在创纪录的屠宰量导致生猪存栏量减少之后，中国一度飙升的大豆需求将在第一季度同比放缓约五分之一，在南美大豆预计将出现过剩之前对价格构成压力。
Tapering purchases by the world's leading importer spell further pressure on the benchmark Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean contract, which is trading at a more than two-year low after a slump of 15% last year.
全球主要进口商逐渐减少采购，给基准芝加哥期货交易所 (CBOT) 大豆合约带来进一步压力，该合约在去年暴跌 15% 后目前跌至两年多低点。
"There is a big mismatch between feed available and pigs available to eat it," said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Shanghai-based Sitonia Consulting.
总部位于上海的Sitonia Consulting 联合创始人达林·弗里德里希斯(Darin Friedrichs) 表示：“可用饲料与可供猪食用的饲料之间存在很大的不匹配。”
A downturn in the hog sector late last year triggered a rush to slaughter by farmers battling plummeting prices for their livestock, high costs and an outbreak of African swine fever.
去年年底生猪行业的低迷引发了农民的屠宰热潮，原因是牲畜价格暴跌、成本高昂以及非洲猪瘟的爆发。
China is expected to import an average of about 18.5 million metric tons of soybeans in the first quarter, down from 23.1 million a year ago, four research and trading firms estimate. At least half the beans are expected to be U.S.-grown.
四家研究和贸易公司估计，中国第一季度预计平均进口约 1850 万吨大豆，低于去年同期的 2310 万吨。预计至少一半的豆子是美国种植的。
The figure would be its smallest first-quarter imports since 2020.
这一数字将是自 2020 年以来第一季度进口量最小的一次。
"This year, we see large supply coming back from South America but on the demand side, we do not anticipate much increase, given unfavorable hog and poultry margins," said a Shanghai-based trader with an international firm.
一家国际公司驻上海的贸易商表示：“今年，我们看到南美洲有大量供应，但在需求方面，由于生猪和家禽利润不利，我们预计不会有太大增长。”
The trader sought anonymity in line with the firm's policy.
该交易员根据公司政策要求匿名。
China buys more than 60% of globally traded soybeans, importing them mainly from top producers Brazil and the United States to crush into soymeal for animal feed and cooking oil.
中国购买了全球贸易量的60%以上的大豆，主要从巴西和美国等顶级生产国进口，用于压榨成豆粕用于动物饲料和食用油。
Its soybean inventories have risen after last year's imports of 99.41 million metric tons hit a three-year high, to stand up 11% from 2022, driven by cheap Brazilian beans and feed demand after pig farms expanded herds.
去年大豆进口量为 9941 万吨，创三年新高，受廉价巴西豆类和养猪场扩大存栏后饲料需求的推动，大豆库存量较 2022 年增加 11%。
China’s largest hog breeder, Muyuan Foods Co, sold 6.6 million animals in December, up 25% on the month and 10% on the year.
中国最大的生猪养殖企业牧原食品有限公司12月份销售生猪660万头，环比增长25%，同比增长10%。
Its No. 2 firm, Wen’s Foodstuff Group Co, sold 2.97 million hogs in December, up 15% on the month, and 58% annually.
其第二大企业温氏食品集团有限公司12月份生猪销量为297万头，环比增长15%，同比增长58%。
But now, with fewer pigs to feed in the world's biggest breeder, Dalian soymeal futures have fallen 8% this month to their lowest since August 2023.
但现在，由于全球最大种猪场的生猪数量减少，大连豆粕期货本月下跌 8%，跌至 2023 年 8 月以来的最低水平。
"Crushers are suffering losses due to decrease in soymeal prices," said Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI. "It is unlikely for them to quicken the pace of buying."
上海农业咨询公司 JCI 的分析师罗莎·王 (Rosa Wang) 表示：“由于豆粕价格下跌，压榨商正在蒙受损失。” “他们不太可能加快购买步伐。”
Further weighing on demand is Beijing's food security-driven push for feedmakers to lower the soy content in feed, with substitutes such as peanut and sunflower seed instead.
进一步打压需求的是，中国政府出于食品安全的原因推动饲料生产商降低饲料中的大豆含量，并用花生和葵花籽等替代品代替。
PLENTIFUL BEANS 丰富的豆类
The tepid demand comes amid larger harvest forecasts of about 52 million tons in the 2023/24 season for third-largest producer Argentina, after drought battered its previous crop, but that will offset drought losses expected in top grower Brazil's crop.
需求不温不火之际，预计第三大生产国阿根廷2023/24年度的收成将增加约5200万吨，之前的作物遭受干旱重创，但这将抵消最大种植国巴西作物的干旱损失。
U.S farmers are also likely to plant more soybeans instead of corn this year on expectations of rising demand for soy-based biofuels, Reuters reported last month.
据路透社上个月报道，由于预期对大豆生物燃料的需求不断增长，美国农民今年也可能种植更多大豆，而不是玉米。
In the eastern province of Shandong, feed meal supplier Qin Shengxiang said orders for soymeal had eased as mills and farms cut costs.
在东部省份山东省，饲料粉供应商秦胜祥表示，随着工厂和农场削减成本，豆粕订单有所减少。
"The market outlook for cattle, sheep and pigs in the first half of 2024 is not optimistic," Qin said. "We will have to wait until the second half of next year to see if things will improve."
“2024年上半年牛羊猪市场前景并不乐观。”秦说。 “我们必须等到明年下半年才能看到情况是否会有所改善。”
Still, for the full year, China's soy imports may rise by 1% to 2% as sow inventories remain high, analysts and traders said.
不过，分析师和贸易商表示，由于母猪存栏量仍然很高，全年中国大豆进口量可能会增长 1% 至 2%。
"Sow inventory is still higher than rational levels," JCI's Wang said. "We are predicting an abundant supply of pigs this year but it will depend on whether the pig farms will liquidate their sows and how fast."
“母猪存栏量仍高于合理水平，”JCI 的王表示。 “我们预计今年生猪供应充足，但这将取决于养猪场是否会淘汰母猪以及淘汰的速度。”
China's end-November sow herd declined 5.2% from a year earlier to 41.6 million, agriculture ministry data showed.
农业部数据显示，中国11月底母猪存栏量同比下降5.2%至4160万头。
(Reporting by Mei Mei Chu Editing by Tony Munroe and Clarence Fernandez)
（朱美美报道，托尼·芒罗和克拉伦斯·费尔南德斯编辑） |
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离天堂最近的地方（马尔代夫7天5晚＋顺游新加坡）－－已更新， 马尔代夫照片已上 (2005-9-4) Adam 
发表于 2024-3-30 17:30
