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楼主:fademark

[行情讨论] 悉尼4月份房价数据显示微跌 [复制链接]

发表于 2017-4-28 20:44 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 fademark 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 fademark 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
我觉得市场对涨息反应不大,过几个月估计又要涨
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发表于 2017-4-28 20:46 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 fademark 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 fademark 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
Seiya 发表于 2017-4-28 12:25
看不了英文原版,麻烦楼主把原版全文贴一下,必加分

by Christopher Joye
So Sydney house prices have fallen in April for the first time on a month-on-month basis since December 2015, validating last week's call that the easy-money fuelled Aussie housing boom is grinding to a halt.
According to CoreLogic's daily hedonic index—the only measure that tracks price movements on a timely basis—home values across the nation's largest metropolis have fallen 0.1 per cent in the first 27 days of April. This represents a dramatic deceleration in momentum given Sydney dwellings recorded total capital gains of 5 per cent over the March 2017 quarter alone.
A similar trend is evident across the five capital cities index, which has climbed just 0.15 per cent in April compared to a 1.2 per cent average monthly growth rate between January and March.
Another powerful real-time indicator is auction clearance rates, which tell a similar story. Clearance rates have declined for the last three weeks running, with Sydney, Melbourne, and the national market registering the weakest clearance rate last weekend all year save for the seasonally soft first seven days in February. Nationally the volume-weighted clearance rate has slumped below 70 per cent from a peak of 78 per cent two months ago.
Sydney house prices fall.
Sydney house prices fall.
I expect Sydney and Melbourne price growth to continue to cool for the remainder of 2017 as interest rate hikes from our largest lenders combined with explicit constraints on credit growth imposed by the banking regulator help reign in the irrational exuberance.
The one missing piece of the puzzle is the Reserve Bank of Australia's increasingly "negative" real 1.5 per cent cash rate. We learned this week that consumer price inflation rose at a 2.1 per cent pace over the year to March 2017, accelerating for the last three consecutive quarters from just 1 per cent in June 2016. Domestic, or "non-tradeables", inflation, was even stronger at 2.6 per cent. When CBA's economists update these data to include the cost of being a home owner, which is excluded from the official numbers, inflation likely expanded by 3 per cent over the year to March.
This means that with a 1.5 per cent cash rate savers are going backwards after accounting for their cost of living when they allocate money to safe investments like at-call deposits, especially after paying tax. (Macquarie's popular cash management account pays merely 1.4 per cent.)
How unusual is the current negative "real" cash rate?

Since 1990 the RBA's risk-free rate has on average given Australian households a 2.7 per cent annual interest premium above inflation. If we only consider the post-2000 period, the cash rate delivered 1.6 per cent annually above inflation compared to -0.6 per cent currently. In the last quarter of a century, the real cash rate has never been more negative.
Auction clearance rates decline.
Auction clearance rates decline.
The RBA is punishing prudent households by forcing them to chase unnecessarily high risks to get a return that exceeds their living expenses. Ten times leveraged investment property anyone?
At the same time, the RBA rewards the imprudent—those geared to the gills—with artificially low borrowing costs. This represents an entirely unprecedented transferable of wealth from savers to borrowers in the name of maintaining economic growth above trend by blowing a housing bubble. Go figure.
Similar economies like Canada, New Zealand, the US and the UK all target 2 per cent inflation rates (not 2 per cent to 3 per cent) on which basis Australia's current 2.1 per cent inflation rate would be considered "normal", not excessively low.
Where did the RBA's 2 per cent to 3 per cent inflation target come from? Former governor Bernie Fraser guesstimated it was the right range back in 1993. But there was no science to it, and it makes no sense at all to distort savings and investment decisions so egregiously just to hit 2.5 per cent.
I won't hold my breath for the RBA to swallow its pride and accept it got its policy settings wrong given its desire to project papal-like infallibility. So in the meantime let's focus on making money.
Price puzzle

One puzzle I've highlighted to colleagues is the curiously narrow interest rate spread between the major banks' senior and subordinated bonds. The junior-ranking subordinated, or "Tier 2", bonds have normally paid an interest spread above the bank bill swap rate that is between 2 times and 2.5 times the spreads offered on the majors' senior bonds with the same expected maturity.
Take the last wholesale subordinated bond issued by NAB in September 2016. This priced at 2.4 per cent above the bank bill swap rate, or 2.4 times the spread on an equivalent senior bond.
Yet today the same NAB security is trading on a spread of 1.75 per cent above bank bills compared to senior bond spreads of circa 0.93 per cent, which equates to a tiny multiple of only 1.88 times. This suggests that either major bank sub debt is super expensive and/or major bank senior is very cheap from an investor perspective.
If we assume current major bank senior is pricing at fair value, sub debt should be offering spreads of about 2.1 per cent above bills taking the mid-point of the normal 2 times to 2.5 times multiple. If one assumes the NAB multiple in September 2016 was reasonable, any new 5 year sub debt deal should pay 2.23 per cent over bills.
An alternative explanation is that senior is simply cheap: whereas sub debt spreads are now inside their previous post-GFC "tights" set in 2014, senior spreads are still  0.2 per cent wide of these levels even though balance-sheet leverage is lower.
What makes this puzzle more perplexing is that the supply risks are in the subordinated, not senior, space. The majors have already issued huge amounts of senior this year and with credit growth slowing they will presumably attenuate wholesale bond issuance. In contrast, they have massive sub debt maturities in 2017 with Deustche Bank estimating that Aussie banks will issue $20 billion of these securities this year.
While I don't personally own any major bank sub right now, I do like senior.
The author is a portfolio manager/director of Coolabah Capital Investments and Smarter Money Investments, which invest in fixed-income securities.



Read more: http://www.afr.com/personal-fina ... vu9zi#ixzz4fXII6C8c
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

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发表于 2017-4-28 20:48 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 fademark 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 fademark 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
天涯浪客 发表于 2017-4-28 13:53
最近关注的三套房子,全部是5月6日拍卖的,截至昨天晚上,已经全部在拍卖前卖出,价格惊人,超出我预期。

...

好多区拍卖很火,提前卖的价钱也在涨

发表于 2017-4-28 20:52 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 sdxz2002 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 sdxz2002 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
真的开始跌了?

发表于 2017-4-28 22:57 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 wxin7318-2 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 wxin7318-2 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
天涯浪客 发表于 2017-4-28 13:53
最近关注的三套房子,全部是5月6日拍卖的,截至昨天晚上,已经全部在拍卖前卖出,价格惊人,超出我预期。

...

你终于也要换house了,带地确实才是王道

发表于 2017-4-28 23:02 |显示全部楼层
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跌了也买不起
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发表于 2017-4-28 23:15 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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银行加息效应开始体现。

发表于 2017-4-29 00:49 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 天涯浪客 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 天涯浪客 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
本帖最后由 天涯浪客 于 2017-4-28 23:52 编辑
wxin7318-2 发表于 2017-4-28 21:57
你终于也要换house了,带地确实才是王道


没有啊。我看的是townhouse.
足迹最穷地产投资人

发表于 2017-4-29 02:20 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 幸福的准妈妈 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 幸福的准妈妈 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
千分之一有必要报吗?还是有其他用意?

发表于 2017-4-29 11:03 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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这个数据感觉是给政府看的,求同情,求不要再下猛料了

发表于 2017-4-29 11:25 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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天涯浪客 发表于 2017-4-28 23:49
没有啊。我看的是townhouse.

啊?为什么?你不是已经住四房townhouse了吗?怎么还看?想再买投资房?还是要自住换区了?
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发表于 2017-4-29 11:43 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 天涯浪客 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 天涯浪客 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
本帖最后由 天涯浪客 于 2017-4-29 10:47 编辑
wxin7318-2 发表于 2017-4-29 10:25
啊?为什么?你不是已经住四房townhouse了吗?怎么还看?想再买投资房?还是要自住换区了? ...


换区,卡夫宁。
足迹最穷地产投资人
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禁止发言

发表于 2017-4-29 11:55 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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fademark 发表于 2017-4-28 19:44
我觉得市场对涨息反应不大,过几个月估计又要涨

主要是银行为了抢客户,对新的贷款利率批的极低

发表于 2017-4-29 13:45 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 wxin7318-2 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 wxin7318-2 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
天涯浪客 发表于 2017-4-29 10:43
换区,卡夫宁。

银行镇长跑路了,那银行镇怎么办?

发表于 2017-4-29 14:12 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 天涯浪客 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 天涯浪客 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
wxin7318-2 发表于 2017-4-29 12:45
银行镇长跑路了,那银行镇怎么办?

不是还有你们嘛。现在群众已经发展起来了,不需要我坐镇了。
足迹最穷地产投资人

发表于 2017-4-29 14:17 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 wxin7318-2 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 wxin7318-2 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
本帖最后由 wxin7318-2 于 2017-4-29 13:21 编辑
天涯浪客 发表于 2017-4-29 13:12
不是还有你们嘛。现在群众已经发展起来了,不需要我坐镇了。


我不是银行镇的村民呀,而且那里的投资房早都抛了,看来还是人往高处走,差区始终也只是一个跳板呀
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发表于 2017-4-29 15:50 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 天涯浪客 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 天涯浪客 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
wxin7318-2 发表于 2017-4-29 13:17
我不是银行镇的村民呀,而且那里的投资房早都抛了,看来还是人往高处走,差区始终也只是一个跳板呀 ...

分散投资吧,我是不会抛的,实在没必要,租售比,空置率实在太好了。现在看的很多房子都是100万左右,租个500多一周的,买一套自主还行,投资真是扛不住啊。
足迹最穷地产投资人

发表于 2017-4-29 16:13 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 wxin7318-2 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 wxin7318-2 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整
天涯浪客 发表于 2017-4-29 14:50
分散投资吧,我是不会抛的,实在没必要,租售比,空置率实在太好了。现在看的很多房子都是100万左右,租 ...

就是说的自住,有时候不抛一两套升级不了自住,贷款额度卡死了呢

发表于 2017-5-3 15:31 |显示全部楼层
此文章由 zhangtingban 原创或转贴,不代表本站立场和观点,版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 zhangtingban 所有!转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明,并保持内容完整

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