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人口净入统计与未来房价,都是干货

2019-6-14 13:01| 发布者: 呼呼呼 | 查看: 4704| 原文链接

标题很大,别被吓到,内容只是简单列点数据说点个人观点。备注:我只是一个有脑子的“微小投资者”---尽量达到财产不贬值就好。

NET OVERSEAS MIGRATION

KEY STATISTICS

Overseas migration to and from Australia in 2018, resulted in a net increase to Australia's population of 237,200 people:
There were 526,300 migrant arrivals which was an annual decrease for the first time since 2014
There were 289,000 migrant departures which is the highest number on record
327,300 of the migrant arrivals were on temporary visas and 87,900 were on permanent visas.


看上去很多,但是!


如上图显示,2007-2008是最高峰。现在实质是下降了一点点,然后走平。
我们都知道2008前后是房价上升较高阶段,2011前后下降一点点。实际年份不一定对,但想表达的是:房价上升是在人口增加之后(滞后体现)。

The net overseas migration estimates and change from one year earlier for each state and territory were:
New South Wales 89,800 people (with a decrease of -15,700)
Victoria 85,100 (decrease of -6,200)
Queensland 28,700 (decrease of -5,400)
South Australia 12,700 (increase of 500)
Western Australia        12,800 (increase of 800)
Tasmania        2,600 (increase of 200)
Northern Territory        800 (decrease of -1,000)
Australian Capital Territory 4,800 (increase of 600).


移民来后会优先考虑偏远地区吗?  你知道答案。 那么NSW 与VIC有啥地方可注的? 你也知道答案。
所以实质是: 净移民人口每年9万到Sydney。 不考虑净人口变动。就说这9万人移民来后住哪?按照移民局另外统计移民里差不多1/3以上是华人。换算一下每年3万人,就算1万个家庭吧。 来后住哪里?(还没算临时签证)



来的主力都是年轻人!年轻人!年轻人! 要生孩子,要生孩,要生孩子!  学区,学区,学区!
Sydney能住的华人区,学区有多少? 平均一下每个区能放多少人? 是,确实每年不少华人也会“走掉”。 作为华人,新来的总要找住所吧?作为华人,“走掉的”多少人会卖房?

新房?  Dwelling units approved




NEW SOUTH WALES



所以,不用说观点总结了。
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