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汇丰银行经济学家Paul Bloxham表示，全国经济的快速反弹将因传染性更强的Delta COVID-19变种在最大的州的蔓延以及消除病毒病例的前景将面临挑战而变得平缓。
一些经济学家认为，新南威尔士州不断恶化的形势意味着全国经济在截至9月30日的当前三个月内将难以实现正增长。
Bloxham先生周一表示，澳大利亚的国际边境关闭、积极压制病毒和3000亿美元的政府开支刺激等大流行病政策在过去一年左右的时间里产生了 "非常大 "的前期经济效益。
Bloxham先生在接受采访时说，但消灭快速传播的Delta变体的困难意味着延迟的成本将开始增加，并减缓经济复苏。
Bloxham先生说："我担心我们可能处于一个转折点，因为新南威尔士州的疫情已经有了发展势头，Delta的传播速度比以前的菌株快得多，可能很难在新南威尔士州将其恢复到零。"
"如果是这样的话，这可能会在全国范围内产生相当大的连带效应，因为其他州都关闭了边界，而在这一情况下，新南威尔士州实际上被当作另一个国家。"
"零容忍消除战略一开始就非常有力，但成本总是会在以后出现，因为最终病毒会进入社区，我想知道大悉尼是否会被证明是管理战略的转折点。"
"这可能会改变整个国家的情况。"
新州是人口最多的州，占全国经济产出的三分之一。
在主要的先进国家中，澳大利亚的经济回升速度最快。失业率已从去年7月的7.4%的峰值下降到5月的5.1%，而招聘广告和职位空缺也达到了历史最高水平。
总部设在悉尼的Bloxham先生说，封锁将立即削弱新南威尔士州的经济活动。
其他州的边界对新州关闭的时间越长，就会阻碍跨境商业，并加剧全国的技能短缺。
他说："我们本来好转的，因为我们把病毒挡在了外面，而且政府提供了巨大的财政刺激"他说。
"该战略的很多成本可能会在以后出现"。
"现在，财政转移的规模不会那么大，如果这标志着病毒不再被挡在外面，这种调整将使事情变得缓慢。"
联邦政府和新州政府周一正在敲定一项针对企业和家庭的数十亿美元的联合财政支持方案。
英国的研究表明，Delta变体的传染性至少提高了50%，而新南威尔士州的数据表明，它的传染性可能比澳大利亚去年送走的武汉变体高出90%或近一倍。
澳大利亚国立大学传染病医生和微生物学家Peter Collignon说，在大悉尼地区有可能达到零或非常低的病例数，因为悉尼东部已经开始抑制病毒，并表明这是可能的。
随后，在悉尼西南部紧密相连的不同种族的社区中爆发的病毒，迫使州政府实施更严厉的限制。
澳大利亚储备银行行长Philip Lowe上周表示，最近爆发的病毒和封锁将在短期内影响复苏的力度。
"但澳大利亚的经验是，一旦疫情得到控制，限制措施得到放松，经济就会迅速反弹，"洛维博士在周二说。
自那时起，新南威尔士州的病毒病例数急剧上升，最初计划的为期两周的封锁于7月9日结束，现在没有明确的结束日期，预计至少还将持续数周。
新南威尔士州在截至周日晚上8点的24小时内记录了112个新的本地感染病例，其中34名感染者在整个感染期间都在社区。
有626个活跃的本地感染病例。
一名90多岁的妇女在疫情爆发期间死亡。
禁闭一周花费10亿美元
据AMP Capital经济学家Shane Oliver称，悉尼的封锁每周要花费约10亿美元。
摩根大通的经济学家Ben Jarman将他的9月季度GDP增长预测下调了0.5个百分点，仅为0.25％。
贾曼先生说："限制措施似乎很可能会延续到本月的大部分时间，甚至更久"。
"经济影响将大大小于2020年4月/5月的记录，但对GDP增长仍有非同小可的影响。"
卫生官员说，新南威尔士州的大规模疫苗接种诊所将开始为40岁及以上的人注射阿斯利康冠状病毒疫苗，因为悉尼的疫情已经 "极大地 "改变了风险。
Bloxham先生说，加快延迟的本地疫苗推广将是重要的，但不一定是完全的万能药。
Bloxham先生说："我们必须尽可能快地加快疫苗的推广，但我们知道有供应限制。
"即使疫苗推广了，它仍然意味着目前采取零容忍态度的各州将不得不在某种程度上接受社区中会有病毒。"
"美国、英国和欧洲都在前面受到了冲击，现在他们更多地接种了疫苗，并回到了正轨。"
维多利亚州的经济从去年年中近四个月的关闭中迅速反弹，但那是在病毒传染性较低的时候.
https://www.afr.com/policy/econo ... und-20210712-p588y1
The rapid national economic rebound will be flattened by the spread of the more infectious delta COVID-19 variant in the largest state and the prospect that eliminating virus cases will be challenging to achieve, according to HSBC economist Paul Bloxham.
Some economists are tipping the deteriorating situation in NSW means the national economy will struggle to record positive growth in the current three-month quarter to September 30.
Australia’s pandemic policies of international border closures, aggressive suppression of the virus and $300 billion in government spending stimulus had generated “really big” upfront economic benefits over the past year or so, Mr Bloxham said on Monday.
But the difficultly in snuffing out the rapid-spreading delta variant meant the delayed costs would begin to mount and slow the economic recovery, Mr Bloxham said in an interview.
“I worry we could be at a turning point because the outbreak in NSW has got momentum and delta moves so much faster than the previous strains that it may be hard to get it back down to zero in NSW,” Mr Bloxham said.
“If that were the case, that could have quite large cascading effects across the country because the other states have all closed their borders and while that stays in place, NSW is effectively treated as another country.”
“The zero tolerance elimination strategy has been very powerful to start with but the costs were always going to come later because eventually the virus arrives in the community and I wonder if greater Sydney is going to prove to be the turning point of the strategy for managing it.”
“That could change the whole national picture.”
NSW is the most populated state and accounts for one-third of the nation’s economic output.
Australia has recorded the fastest economic rebound out of the major advanced countries. The unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.4 per cent last July to 5.1 per cent in May, amid record highs for job ads and job vacancies.
Sydney-based Mr Bloxham said the lockdown would immediately weaken economic activity in NSW.
The longer other state borders remained closed to NSW, it would impede cross-border commerce and exacerbate skills shortages across the country.
“We roared back initially because we kept the virus out and had enormous fiscal stimulus from the government,” he said.
“A lot of the costs of the strategy were likely to come later.
“Now the scale of the fiscal transfers won’t be as large and if this marks the point where the virus is no longer kept out, that adjustment is going to slow things down.”
The federal and NSW government on Monday were finalising a joint multibillion-dollar fiscal support package for business and households.
British research suggests the delta variant is at least 50 per cent more infectious, and NSW data is suggesting it could be 90 per cent or nearly doubly more contagious than the Wuhan variant Australia saw off last year.
Australian National University infectious diseases physician and microbiologist Peter Collignon said it was possible to get to zero or very low case numbers in greater Sydney, because eastern Sydney had begun to suppress the virus and showed it was possible.
A subsequent virus breakout among close-knit ethnically diverse communities in south-western Sydney has forced the state government to impose tougher restrictions.
Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe said last week the recent outbreaks of the virus and lockdowns will affect the strength of the recovery in the near term.
“But Australia’s experience has been that once an outbreak is contained and restrictions are eased, the economy bounces back quickly,” Dr Lowe said on Tuesday.
Since then, NSW’s virus case numbers have spiked sharply and an initial planned two-week lockdown ending on July 9 now has no defined end-date and is expected to last several more weeks, at a minimum.
NSW recorded 112 new locally acquired cases in the 24 hours to 8pm on Sunday, with 34 of the infected people out in the community for the entire time they were infectious.
There was 626 active locally acquired cases.
One woman in her 90s has died during the outbreak.
Lockdown costs $1b a week
Sydney’s lockdown is costing about $1 billion a week, according to AMP Capital economist Shane Oliver.
JPMorgan economist Ben Jarman cut his September quarter GDP growth forecast by 0.5 of a percentage point to just 0.25 per cent
“It seems probable the restrictions will extend through most of this month, if not longer,” Mr Jarman said.
“The economic impact will be materially smaller than what was recorded in April/May 2020, but still have non-trivial implications for GDP growth.”
Mass vaccination clinics will start to give people in NSW the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine to anyone aged 40 and older because Sydney’s outbreak has “dramatically” changed the risks, health officials said.
Mr Bloxham said speeding up the delayed local vaccine rollout would be important, but not necessarily a complete panacea.
”We have to speed up the rollout of the vaccine as quickly as we can, but we know there are supply constraints,” Mr Bloxham said.
“Even once the vaccine is rolled out, it’s still going to mean the states which currently have a zero tolerance approach are going to have to at some point accept there is going to be virus in the community.”
“The US, UK and Europe all had the shock up front and now they’re more vaccinated and getting back on track.”
The Victorian economy rebounded quickly from a near four-month shutdown in the middle of last year, but that was when the virus was less contagious.
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分辨率画廊第二展（卡通形象设计及绘制专辑）<更新完成> (2007-8-26) 分辨率 
发表于 2021-7-12 17:41
