听说又要涨息了

flashman

朋友说他前几周翻翻报纸，发现同一房产一周前后价格下降了，

今天7 台就放出消消息

villa

原帖由 flashman 于 2007-2-21 21:14 发表
朋友说他前几周翻翻报纸，发现同一房产一周前后价格下降了，

今天7 台就放出消消息

今天的这则新闻在这里：


http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200702/s1852941.htm


澳洲央行行长Glenn Stevens今天在联邦国会经济委员会的听证会上说，未来升息的可能性要大于降息。

他向国会经济委员会的议员们表示，央行对去年三次加息后的最近两次议息会议上作出维持官方基准利率不变的决定感到comfortable，但是，他给社会上称央行将要降息的传闻“浇冷水”，表示对未来利率走向可能性的陈述，升息比降息更有可能。（Mr Stevens has told the committee that after three interest rate rises last year the central bank is comfortable with its decision at its past two meetings to leave rates on hold.

However, he has talked down the probability of a drop in interest rates.

"As a statement of probabilities, a rise is more likely than a fall," he said.）




Rate hike more likely than fall, says RBA boss



ABC NEWS  21 Feb 2007


Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has told a federal parliamentary committee hearing in Perth that interest rates are more likely to rise rather than fall.

The House of Representatives Economics Committee holds public hearings twice a year and is visiting Perth for the first time.

Mr Stevens is also addressing the committee for the first time in his role as the Reserve Bank's governor.

Mr Stevens has told the committee that after three interest rate rises last year the central bank is comfortable with its decision at its past two meetings to leave rates on hold.

However, he has talked down the probability of a drop in interest rates.

"As a statement of probabilities, a rise is more likely than a fall," he said.

The last interest rate rise was in November last year, when the RBA raised its offical cash rate to 6.25 per cent. It was the third rate hike in that year.

Mr Stevens does not accept the idea that interest rates should not increase in an election year.

"I don't think any central bank could accept the notion that somehow a rate change is off-limits for one year out of three, that would be crazy," he said.

Mr Stevens has also rejected suggestions there is a rental crisis across Australia, instead describing the current rental market as tight.

villa

原帖由 villa 于 2007-2-21 21:30 发表
澳洲央行行长Glenn Stevens今天在联邦国会经济委员会的听证会上说，未来升息的可能性要大于降息。

他向国会经济委员会的议员们表示，央行对去年三次加息后的最近两次议息会议上作出维持官方基准利率不变的决定感到comfortable，但是，他给社会上称央行将要降息的传闻“浇冷水”，表示对未来利率走向可能性的陈述，升息比降息更有可能。

事实上，在一个多星期前，澳洲央行公布了季度货币政策报告，表示去年的三次加息已对控制通胀产生足够影响。

该央行下调了澳洲的核心通胀预期，表示未来2年内通胀降低的可能性还会不断扩大，并暗示将在一段时期内维持利率水平不变。

但央行也同时表示，在失业率降至4.5％的三十年新低情况下，在未来一段时间降息的可能性也不太大。


http://www.smh.com.au/news/busin ... .html?s_cid=rss_smh


"The central forecast is for year ended underlying inflation - currently around three per cent - to fall to 2.75 per cent in 2007 and 2008," it said in its quarterly statement on monetary policy released today.

It said with recent falls in oil prices and the unwinding of the banana price increases, the annual headline consumer price index (CPI) rate is expected to fall below two per cent - compared to 3.3 per cent in the December quarter - in mid-2007, before rising to be about the same as underlying inflation later in the forecast period.

"These forecasts represent a modest downward revision to the inflation forecast contained in the previous statement, reflecting both the evidence that underlying inflationary pressures in the second half of 2006 were somewhat weaker than in the first half, and the likelihood that recent falls in world oil prices will result in some dampening effect on cost pressures and inflation expectations," the RBA said.



http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/v ... type%26typeid%3D101


:si139

villa

原帖由 villa 于 2007-2-21 21:30 发表


今天的这则新闻在这里：


http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200702/s1852941.htm


澳洲央行行长Glenn Stevens今天在联邦国会经济委员会的听证会上说，未来升息的可能性要大于降息。


Mr Stevens does not accept the idea that interest rates should not increase in an election year.

"I don't think any central bank could accept the notion that somehow a rate change is off-limits for one year out of three, that would be crazy," he said.  

个人对今天这则新闻这么看：

一周前的央行季度货币政策报告一出台，受到各方强烈关注，并被本地媒体过分解读和渲染；甚至有人称央行在今年大选年“不敢加息”，更有甚者，还有人预测央行会在年底联邦大选前“配合”执政党去“降息”。

作为完全独立而中立的机构，澳洲中央银行的货币政策并不听令于执政党；作为新官上任不久的行长Glenn Stevens，更不愿意给社会大众以“政府傀儡”的形象，所以才会有今天国会听证会上的一番声明。

央行行长表示不接受在大选年利率不会上涨的说法，他说：“我认为，任何一个中央银行都不会接受一年三次加息已到极限的主张。”


对于未来一年澳洲息口的变化走势，个人比较认同Westpac银行首席经济学家Bill Evans的看法：


今年内官方基准利率维持不变的可能性更大，但如果真要说有变化，也只是升息比降息的的可能性大一点点而已。



您怎么看？欢迎发表看法。



http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun ... 1211176-664,00.html



The RBA also lowered its forecast for underlying inflation, which smooths out volatile price swings from items such as energy and food, to 2.75 per cent in 2007 and 2008 from around three per cent currently.

"This is not a statement from a central bank who feel that higher rates may be necessary in the near term," said Bill Evans, Global Head of Economics & Research at Westpac.

Mr Evans said he expected rates would be on hold for the remainder of the year.

However, Mr Evans said he believed that global economic pressures, a strengthening of consumer and housing spending, continuing pressure on wages from a historically tight labour market, and a global trend for rates to rise, put the risks to interest rates on the upside rather than the downside.   




[ 本帖最后由 villa 于 2007-2-22 07:31 编辑 ]

黑山老妖

好象现在的concensus是持平并可能在下半年会下调0.25%

maplefire

感觉持平的可能性大...

patricb

原帖由 villa 于 2007-2-21 22:40 发表
个人对今天这则新闻这么看：

一周前的央行季度货币政策报告一出台，受到各方强烈关注，并被本地媒体过分解读和渲染；甚至有人称央行在今年大选年“不敢加息”，更有甚者，还有人预测央行会在年底联邦大选前“配 ...

:si21:si21:si21

语阁

加息的可能不大，没有看到现在的银行固定的比浮动的低，以前可是固定的比浮动的高。另外，关于房子，不管利息涨还是跌，我没有发现墨尔本的房价下跌，我们这里去年10月的一个木头房子，23.8W，现在已经是25W了，原来25W的房子，已经是将近27W。

bulaohu

"作为完全独立而中立的机构，澳洲中央银行的货币政策并不听令于执政党"

true, but reserve bank also has to avoid being seen as interfering with politics, therefore they normally do nothing once the election compaign starts, or even before that, even if there is a reason for them to do something.

And...Australia's economy is so heavily relying on export and foreign economies, it's hard to predict what's gonna happen to it purely based on domestic situations.

rdcwayx

原帖由 语阁 于 2007-2-22 11:38 发表
加息的可能不大，没有看到现在的银行固定的比浮动的低，以前可是固定的比浮动的高。另外，关于房子，不管利息涨还是跌，我没有发现墨尔本的房价下跌，我们这里去年10月的一个木头房子，23.8W，现在已经是25W了，原 ...

个人感觉，墨尔本的房子还没真正的开始涨，所以你会有这种感觉。大家住在mel的，还是尽快买房吧。那里的房子感觉超便宜啊。

彼岸

The ABS latest issue shows CPI falls -0.1% in Dec quarter.

The significant contribution to this decrease comes from automotive fuel (-12.4%) and fruit (-5.2%). Thus it
is highly likely that CPI will go up if petrol and fruit's price hikes.

In addition, the increasing 3.3% through the year  and strong employment rate could impact another interest
rate hike.

yliu135

MEL的房子肯定要涨的，连PERTH的都超过了MEL。

紫水晶

加息打击的只有是低收入的人，对于高收入，他们占有的高端市场只是助长！

小双

看央行报告, 还是中性偏紧的.

http://www.rba.gov.au/Publicatio ... _monetary_0207.html

WTFAUS

原帖由 rdcwayx 于 2007-2-26 08:42 发表


个人感觉，墨尔本的房子还没真正的开始涨，所以你会有这种感觉。大家住在mel的，还是尽快买房吧。那里的房子感觉超便宜啊。

一直庆幸自己那时没有去悉尼。。。不过也一直有个疑问。悉尼房子动辄50 60万，相当于墨尔本30万左右的房子？ 就是这样广大悉尼的tz们还是能买房。。。难道悉尼的工资比我们在墨尔本高那么多？

财神爷

原帖由 WTFAUS 于 2007-3-1 10:18 发表

一直庆幸自己那时没有去悉尼。。。不过也一直有个疑问。悉尼房子动辄50 60万，相当于墨尔本30万左右的房子？ 就是这样广大悉尼的tz们还是能买房。。。难道悉尼的工资比我们在墨尔本高那么多？

50 60w的是近一点的unit apartment，或者很远的house，和墨尔本不可比较 ……

悉尼的工资与墨尔本没有大的区别。

这么贵还买，是因为有需要。而且，贵=/=没有回报

Portal

你买的贵, 卖的也贵, 怕个p啊

WTFAUS

如果是投资房室没有什么，是自住的话，还款压力是挺大的。

villa

澳洲储备银行宣布利率维持6.25pc不变  




3月7日消息   澳洲的中央银行储备银行每月议息会议决定维持官方基准利率6.25%不变。这和大多数经济学家事前的预期符合。

在上月储备银行行长Glenn Stevens表明暂时没有上调利率的准备之后，各界普遍认为RBA将维持现有利率。然而，Stevens也警告，如果将来通胀再度浮现，他不会保证不上调利率。

储备银行曾在去年5月，8月，和11月三次上调利率以减轻通货膨胀带来的压力。



2007年澳洲利率走势预测，请参阅下面这篇文章。




Steady rates forecast for 2007



March 07, 2007


THE central bank has left interest rates unchanged at 6.25 per cent and some analysts are forecasting there will be no rate rises in 2007 or rates could even fall.

Today's decision to leave rates unchanged was expected after three rate rises last year, but the Reserve Bank of Australia has already warned that it will not hesitate to lift rates this year if price pressures start to rise again.

The RBA sets interest rates to keep inflation below 3 per cent.

The RBA last year raised interest rates to their highest level in six years.

Now, analysts are asking whether there will be any rate rises in 2007. So far, analysts' views are mixed.

Some prominent analysts argue the slowing Australian economy should preclude a rate rise.

Growth data will be released at 1130am AEDT, and should give hints on the future direction of interest rates.

RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said she does not expect a rate rise.

"The slightly better inflation picture gives the RBA time to sit on its hands to take a better look at the economy," she said.

"We're in data watch and wait mode. The odds are we are in for a pretty extended period of steady rates,  possibly throughout the whole of 2007."

"Overall, you are looking at a pretty resilient household sector and a pretty tight labour market and what is still pretty supportive global growth."

Long-term interest rates set by the bond market have fallen from 5.85 per cent to 5.65 per cent in the past week, and financial markets yesterday started quoting a chance that the central bank's next move could be an interest rate cut.

Housing Industry Association economist Simon Tennent said while the RBA decision today was expected and he predicted steady rates.

"Any sort of announcement on stable interest rates in the immediate future and through the rest of the year, I think will be a good shot in the arm for the housing market.''

Mr Tennent said he did not expect interest rates to rise at all this year or in 2008, with the next move most likely to be down.

"We think the next move will be down, and we think that will be happening in the second half of 2008,'' he said.

"We think that the economy will remain robust enough, but we don't think that inflationary pressures are going to be strong.

"We also think that the drought, once we get into winter is going to wipe a fair bit off Australia's GDP (gross domestic product) growth.''

Mr Tennent said high housing costs and rents will play a key role in preventing rates from rising further.

"We've got 60 per cent of Australians either in the rental market or paying off mortgage,'' he said.



http://www.theaustralian.news.co ... 339822-1702,00.html